697
FXUS64 KEWX 112329
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
629 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION (00Z TAFS)
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
THE MOST RECENT MESOANALYSES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACE THE AXIS
OF AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS, EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE, THOUGH A FEW POP-UP STORMS ALONG THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LATE AFTERNOON CONVERGENCE. AN
APPROACHING POLAR TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS BEGINNING TO
INTERACT WITH THE COASTAL DISTURBANCE, FORCING THE DISTURBANCE TO
STRETCH AND CURVE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK AWAY
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND EXTENT OF COASTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND REMAINING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FIZZLE AFTER
SUNSET.
THE POLAR TROUGH BECOMES A MORE INFLUENTIAL DRIVER OF WEATHER OVER
OUR AREA TUESDAY AS IT SLOWLY SWINGS EAST, MAINTAINING A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGING OVER OUR AREA. OUTFLOW FROM STORMS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON MAY PUSH A FEW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES NEAR OR INTO OUR REGION BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A
FEW LIGHT MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLY STRADDLING THE INITIAL PUSH.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY REARWARD OF THE POLAR TROUGH AXIS
BRINGS AN ACCOMPANYING INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, SUPPORTING
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE HIGHER OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED, BUT A FARTHER
SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WOULD LEAD TO A
SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT AND EXPANSION IN THE MORE FAVORED AREAS FOR
RAIN, INCLUDING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BROADENS TO THE NORTHWEST WITHOUT PUSHING INTO
OUR AREA, SO THE RESULTING STORM ACTIVITY LOOKS MORE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING TUESDAY ALONG PREEXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS
VARIED OUTCOMES RANGING FROM SINGLE CELL STORMS TO MARGINALLY MORE
STRUCTURED CLUSTERINGS OF STORMS. LOW BULK WIND SHEAR BELOW 20 KTS
SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZATION, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS. STORM MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW (AROUND 5 TO 10
KTS) AND MAINLY SOUTHWARDS, BUT WEAK 850 MB FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO
MAINLY SHORT- LIVED DOWNPOURS. STILL, WARM ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES COULD
FACILITATE ISOLATED POCKETS OF AN INCH OR MORE OF QUICK-HITTING RAIN
ALONG INTERSECTING STORM OUTFLOWS. RAIN-COOLED AIR OVER THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU MAY HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY, BUT HIGHS SHOULD HOLD STEADY FOR TUESDAY WITH MID TO UPPER
90S FOR MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE POLAR TROUGH CONTINUES EAST INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY, A STRAGGLING PORTION GETS LEFT BEHIND OVER
NORTH TEXAS AND PREVENTS RIDGING FROM REESTABLISHING AT THE MID-
LEVELS, LEAVING A WEAKLY CONVERGENT 500 MB SHEAR AXIS OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO BE NORTH OF
OUR AREA, SITUATED AROUND THE STRONGEST BAROCLINICITY AND FORCING
FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER, EXPANDING OUTFLOWS FROM THIS ACTIVITY AMID A
WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I-10 FOR WEDNESDAY.
WITHOUT UPPER-LEVEL ASSISTANCE, THE RESIDUAL TROUGH OVER TEXAS
WEAKENS THURSDAY AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
BEGINS A GRADUAL CRAWL AND EXPANSION WESTWARD. WHILE THE MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE BRINGS SOME INITIAL REDUCTION IN RAIN COVERAGE,
STRENGTHENED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE COULD BRING CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED COASTAL
SHOWERS IN THE LATE WEEK BEFORE THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED OVER OUR AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE LOOKS TO RIDE THE RIDGE
PERIPHERY ALONG THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF-IFS BRINGING THE NORTHWARD END OF ITS LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY
AND MOISTURE POUCH INTO THE TEXAS COAST, THOUGH THE GFS IS A LITTLE
FASTER WITH A FRIDAY MORNING ARRIVAL COMPARED TO THE ECMWF-IFS'S
SATURDAY MORNING ARRIVAL. TRENDS IN THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
RIDGING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE BULK OF THE VORTICITY NEARS OUR
AREA OR STAYS FARTHER SOUTH INTO MEXICO, BUT IN EITHER CASE THE
SOUTHERLY 850-700 MB FLOW ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE RIDGE SHOULD
ENSURE SOME OF THAT MOISTURE SPREADS INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND I-35
CORRIDOR.
THE TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES OUT AND DIFFUSES INTO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS FURTHER. BY MONDAY, MEDIUM-RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PLACES THE RIDGE CENTER OVER TEXAS, BRINGING DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS FOR MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY IN THE 90S WITH TROUGHING
PERSISTING OVER OUR AREA, BUT HIGHS AROUND TO JUST OVER 100
POTENTIALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND RIO
GRANDE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE EXPANDING RIDGE. DAYTIME HEAT INDICES
ARE FORECAST TO HOVER MAINLY IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE OUTSIDE
OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE HILL COUNTRY, THOUGH SOME AREAS IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS COULD PUSH A FEW DEGREES HIGHER FOR HEAT INDICES
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH THE ADDED COASTAL MOISTURE AND WARMER
AIR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY
TO VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL INCREASES TO 10+ KTS.
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WHILE THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR SH OR
TS AT TERMINALS TOMORROW, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT AS CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 98 77 98 / 0 30 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 98 75 98 / 10 20 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 98 74 98 / 10 20 10 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 94 75 95 / 0 30 10 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 100 79 100 / 0 10 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 97 76 97 / 0 30 10 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 99 74 98 / 0 10 10 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 99 74 99 / 10 20 10 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 96 75 96 / 10 20 10 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 98 77 98 / 10 20 10 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 100 76 100 / 10 10 10 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...TRAN
LONG-TERM...TRAN
AVIATION...MMM
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