717
FXUS64 KEWX 121116
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
616 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE MID AUGUST TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES
- LOW CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOST AREAS TODAY, WEDNESDAY, AND SATURDAY, THEN EAST OF I-35
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS LINGERS OVER OUR AREA BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL
RIDGES CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND OVER FLORIDA.
CONVECTION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH COULD SEND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY, AND CENTRAL
TEXAS, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS WEAK FORCING BY
THE TROUGHINESS, HEATING AND ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES PROVIDE THE MAIN
FORCING ON A NEARLY SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE DUE TO
THE BOUNDARIES WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. THE FAVORED TIMING
IS THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING TO CORRESPOND WITH HEATING. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF UP TO AROUND 50 MPH AS
INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS ARE FORECAST AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP
TO AN INCH OR SO DUE TO SLOWER MOVING RAIN CELLS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HEAT INDICES
ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES AS AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
MIX LOWER.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
THE WESTERN RIDGE GETS SHOVED EAST PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA
WHILE THE EASTERN RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE KEEPS MOST AREAS RAIN FREE. HOWEVER, THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD GENERATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-35 EACH DAY. ALSO, CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD ANY BOUNDARIES LINGER INTO THURSDAY.
TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PER GFS OR
SATURDAY PER OTHER MODELS BRINGING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST AREAS. THEN, THE RIDGE BUILDS
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND OVER OUR AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SUBSIDENCE EFFECTIVELY ENDS THE RAIN CHANCES, EXCEPT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SUBTLE CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES
AND HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY, HOWEVER NEARLY SEASONABLE
VALUES PREVAIL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT EASTERLY WIND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL INCREASES TO 10+
KNOTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR TERMINALS AROUND OR AFTER 20Z, SO HAVE
OPTED TO INCLUDE PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL SITES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 98 77 98 78 / 20 10 30 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 98 76 98 77 / 10 10 30 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 98 74 98 75 / 20 10 20 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 94 74 94 74 / 20 20 40 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 79 101 79 / 20 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 98 77 96 76 / 10 10 30 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 99 74 99 75 / 20 10 20 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 99 74 99 75 / 20 10 30 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 95 76 97 76 / 10 10 30 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 98 77 99 77 / 20 10 30 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 100 77 101 77 / 20 0 20 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...04
LONG-TERM...04
AVIATION...27
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