072
FXUS64 KEWX 130539
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1239 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE AUGUST TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK BUT ARE MOST
WIDESPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND SATURDAY
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH QUIET AND
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING. AN UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING AND REMNANT
BOUNDARIES UNDER WEAK FORCING ALOFT ALLOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO INITIATE. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR THIS ACTIVITY ARE THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR AND THE
COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. PWATS REMAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL
FROM AROUND 1.5-2 INCHES SO ISOLATED LOCATIONS SEEING 1-3 INCHES OF
RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT, SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY WIND UP TO 50 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD
SEE A WEAKENING TREND IN THE EVENING WITH MOST ACTIVITY COMING TO AN
END AFTER SUNSET.
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS IN A RELATIVE WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN TWO
RIDGES THURSDAY WITH MODELS SHIFTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER
WEST AGAIN INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU. ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS LESS WIDESPREAD
THAN THE FORECAST TODAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MID-LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER FLORIDA EXPANDS
WESTWARD FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRIER CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF I-35 WHERE SEABREEZE ACTIVITY MAY STILL MOVE
ONSHORE. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, A TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND CONTINUE ALONG THE
TX/MEXICO BORDER. THIS BRINGS BACK WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT CHANCES QUICKLY
END LATER THAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGING EXPANDS BACK OVER THE
AREA. THAT SAID, THE SEABREEZE COULD STILL BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR MOST EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY. SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF RIDGING EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A MESSY PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO MID-WEEK. LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHAT
WILL HAPPEN DAY TO DAY IS LOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE MORNING AND
AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PROBS ARE TOO LOW FOR PREVAILING CIGS,
HOWEVER WILL MENTION SCT012-018. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL REDEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30S AT THE
I-35 SITES 18Z-24Z. LIGHT WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED
WITH S TO SE PREVAILING. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS WITH ANY
TSRA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 96 76 97 78 / 40 20 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 96 76 97 77 / 30 20 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 96 75 99 75 / 30 20 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 93 74 93 75 / 40 10 30 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 78 101 79 / 10 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 96 75 96 76 / 40 20 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 97 75 99 75 / 30 20 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 96 74 99 76 / 30 20 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 95 76 96 76 / 40 20 20 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 97 77 98 78 / 30 20 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 98 77 100 78 / 20 20 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...27
LONG-TERM...27
AVIATION...04
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