830
FXUS64 KEWX 282357 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
657 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WORK WEEK INTO SATURDAY, THEN COOLER
THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY
AND AUSTIN METRO, SPREADING SOUTHWARD SATURDAY, AND PEAKING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- MAIN CONCERNS ARE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THAT
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A LEVEL 1 OF 4
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING IS IN PLACE FRI-MON.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
THE LATEST GOES-19 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING 594DM
HIGH OVER WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WEAKENING TREND, HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE LEVELS AND
HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-106 RANGE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
SUPPRESSED. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH TRIPLE
DIGITS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR/COASTAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
THE INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
DECAYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/PSEUDO COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WON'T
ACTUALLY MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY, WE
ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST 2 MORE HOT DAYS BEYOND TODAY BEFORE RELIEF
ARRIVES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO BE FRIDAY, WHERE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY,
WITH HIGHS OF 100-105 EVERYWHERE ELSE. FACTORING IN DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN HOTTER. DESPITE HEAT INDICES APPROACHING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, FELT AS IF ADDITIONAL HEAT MESSAGING WOULD BE
ADEQUATE. HEAT INDICES IN THE 103-108 RANGE ARE EXPECTED,
PARTICULARLY ALONG I-35 AND EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEVERAL
HI-RES MODELS, PARTICULARLY THE ARW WRF AND THE RRFS ARE RATHER
BULLISH ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THIS SOUTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THAT COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE, AND A LEVEL 1 OF 4 ERO IS IN PLACE FOR THE AUSTIN
METRO AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST ON FRIDAY. IT IS NOTABLE THAT
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS THERE DESPITE A RATHER DRY
COUPLE OF WEEKS OVER THE REGION. THE 12Z HREF NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBABILITIES PMM INDICATES A 10% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 3
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN METRO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FROM ANY SLOW MOVING STORM.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT JUST NORTH OF
OUR CWA OR IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-10 CORRIDOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HIGHLIGHTS MUCH OF OUR AREA IN A DAY 3-5
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS (LEVEL 1 OF 4) EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
NOTABLE INGREDIENTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCLUDE:
- A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTION TO FOCUS ON.
- PWATS OF 2-2.25" WILL BE COMMON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE FUEL FOR STORMS.
- SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND FREQUENT COLLISIONS AND BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS.
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL BE COMMON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
PARTICULARLY COMMON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS WELL AS ON
MONDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE WHEN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY SHIFTS SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR MAY BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IN ANY STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH.
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO THE MID 90S.
CONTINUED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH THE REGION FOR LATE
WEEK.
AVIATION (00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
OVERALL, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LATEST ROUND OF AVIATION
FORECASTS HAVE BEEN MADE. WE DID OPT TO MENTION SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS AT AUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS AT LEAST A FEW OF THE
MODELS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW END MVFR CIGS. WE ALSO KEPT
THE PROB30 FOR AUS AS SOME CONVECTION MAY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 100 77 96 / 0 30 20 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 100 76 97 / 0 20 20 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 100 75 98 / 0 10 10 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 76 96 74 92 / 0 30 20 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 102 79 101 / 0 0 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 99 75 94 / 0 40 30 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 100 75 99 / 0 0 0 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 101 74 98 / 0 10 10 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 98 75 96 / 0 20 10 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 100 77 98 / 0 10 10 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 102 78 101 / 0 0 0 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...TRAN
LONG-TERM...TRAN
AVIATION...PLATT
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