700
FXUS64 KEWX 291849
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
149 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE HEAT AND HUMID TODAY AND SATURDAY, THEN NEAR TO BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS NORTH OF SAN
ANTONIO TODAY SPREADING SOUTH TO INCLUDE THE SAN ANTONIO AREA
ON SATURDAY, THEN ALL AREAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAIN
THREAT IS URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WITH A SLIGHT RISK
OF FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE, SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN WHICH
REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING MAINLY OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY AND AREAS NORTH OF THE SAN ANTONIO METRO. THE FRONT REMAINS
IN A SIMILAR LOCATION ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
EXTENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH INTO MOST OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY, COASTAL PLAINS AND I-35 CORRIDOR AS FAR SOUTH
AS SAN ANTONIO. ABOVE NORMAL PWATS ARE IN PLACE TODAY AND TOMORROW
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THESE SLOW MOVING STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND A THREAT OF FLOODING EACH DAY. SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UP TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH STRONGER STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. WPC CONTINUES ITS
LEVEL 1 OF 4 RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT
MOSTLY EXPECT URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ARE SEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. TODAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST WITH SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID
90S TO AROUND 103 DEGREES, BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL SURGE FROM
AROUND 100-108 DEGREES. A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH
HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS. HEAT INDICES DROP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
TOMORROW. EITHER WAY, IF YOU'RE OUT THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND BE
SURE TO TAKE HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SUCH AS DRINKING WATER AND
TAKING BREAKS INSIDE OR IN THE SHADE. ADDITIONALLY, IF THUNDER
ROARS, GO INDOORS!
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
BRINGING THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE WEEK SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY. FORCING BY THE FRONT AND HEATING WILL GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MANY AREAS BETWEEN THE TWO DAYS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 2 INCHES FOR SOME LOCATIONS WHICH
IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR INDICATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. RAIN TOTALS WILL VARY
BUT WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS OR TRAINING STORMS, ISOLATED TOTALS UP
TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. WPC HAS
NOW UPPED THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN A LEVEL 2 OF 4 RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH A LEVEL 1 OF 4 RISK ELSEWHERE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN, STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. THE FRONT HANGS OUT IN SOUTH TEXAS ON
TUESDAY LEAVING SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST,
MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOCATIONS, THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE DRY THIS DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA MID
TO LATE WEEK WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW
RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY, THOUGH MODELS ARE PRETTY VARIED THIS FAR
OUT.
RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS BRING THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK
MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES FOR THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION (19Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BELOW 15KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KAUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. FOR KAUS LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING THE
TERMINAL FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AND AS SUCH HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF PROB30S FOR 21Z TO 24Z FOR -TSRAS HOWEVER DID KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD
START TO BECOME VRB DUE TO POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TSRAS AND
SHOULD CONTINUE BEING VRB AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS BY 11Z
TOMORROW AS MORE SHRAS AND TSRAS ARE FORECAST. HAVE AGAIN ADDED
PROB30S TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TOMORROW EVENING (18Z TO 24Z). FOR KSAT
AND KSSF WE DON'T SEE CHANCES FOR SHRAS AND TSRAS UNTIL LATE IN THE
TAF PACKAGE (AROUND 18Z TOMORROW) HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT FOR NOW AS
ITS UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT MAKES IT TOMORROW AND AGAIN
WILL AMEND AS NEEDED AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GET CLOSER. FOR KDRT
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AS THE FRONT DOESNT LOOK TO
IMPACT THE SITE UNTIL WELL OUTSIDE THE TAF FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 96 75 89 / 30 40 40 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 96 75 89 / 30 30 40 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 98 74 93 / 20 30 30 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 73 85 / 30 50 50 80
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 102 79 99 / 0 10 10 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 74 95 74 85 / 30 40 50 80
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 74 96 / 10 10 10 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 98 74 93 / 20 30 30 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 95 75 90 / 30 40 30 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 99 78 95 / 20 20 20 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 101 78 97 / 10 20 20 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM...27
AVIATION...MAGNUSSEN
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