449
FXUS64 KEWX 292332 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE HEAT AND HUMID TODAY AND SATURDAY, THEN NEAR TO BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS NORTH OF SAN
ANTONIO TODAY SPREADING SOUTH TO INCLUDE THE SAN ANTONIO AREA
ON SATURDAY, THEN ALL AREAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAIN
THREAT IS URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WITH A SLIGHT RISK
OF FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE, SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN WHICH
REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING MAINLY OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY AND AREAS NORTH OF THE SAN ANTONIO METRO. THE FRONT REMAINS
IN A SIMILAR LOCATION ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
EXTENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH INTO MOST OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY, COASTAL PLAINS AND I-35 CORRIDOR AS FAR SOUTH
AS SAN ANTONIO. ABOVE NORMAL PWATS ARE IN PLACE TODAY AND TOMORROW
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THESE SLOW MOVING STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND A THREAT OF FLOODING EACH DAY. SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UP TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH STRONGER STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. WPC CONTINUES ITS
LEVEL 1 OF 4 RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT
MOSTLY EXPECT URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ARE SEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. TODAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST WITH SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID
90S TO AROUND 103 DEGREES, BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL SURGE FROM
AROUND 100-108 DEGREES. A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH
HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS. HEAT INDICES DROP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
TOMORROW. EITHER WAY, IF YOU'RE OUT THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND BE
SURE TO TAKE HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SUCH AS DRINKING WATER AND
TAKING BREAKS INSIDE OR IN THE SHADE. ADDITIONALLY, IF THUNDER
ROARS, GO INDOORS!
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
BRINGING THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE WEEK SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY. FORCING BY THE FRONT AND HEATING WILL GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MANY AREAS BETWEEN THE TWO DAYS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 2 INCHES FOR SOME LOCATIONS WHICH
IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR INDICATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. RAIN TOTALS WILL VARY
BUT WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS OR TRAINING STORMS, ISOLATED TOTALS UP
TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. WPC HAS
NOW UPPED THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN A LEVEL 2 OF 4 RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH A LEVEL 1 OF 4 RISK ELSEWHERE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN, STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. THE FRONT HANGS OUT IN SOUTH TEXAS ON
TUESDAY LEAVING SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST,
MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOCATIONS, THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE DRY THIS DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA MID
TO LATE WEEK WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW
RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY, THOUGH MODELS ARE PRETTY VARIED THIS FAR
OUT.
RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS BRING THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK
MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES FOR THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION (00Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WILL BE MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE TAF SITES. WE HAVE
KEPT A PROB30 AT AUS THROUGH 01Z AS SOME CONVECTION LINGERS
ROUGHLY 10-15 MILES EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL. FOR SAT,
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE IN AROUND 2345Z BRINGING A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM. A
PROB30 GROUP THROUGH 02Z HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WE HAVE KEPT THE SSF FORECAST DRY AS A
DECREASING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT
TOPIC OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS SATURDAY
MORNING. WE WILL SCALE BACK TO A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR AT AUS AND
ONLY MENTION SCT LOW CLOUDS IN A TEMPO FOR SAT AND SSF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WILL
KEEP THE PROB30 FOR AUS AND HAVE ALSO ADDED TO THE SAT FORECAST
AS WELL. DRT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 96 75 89 / 30 40 40 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 96 75 89 / 30 30 40 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 98 74 93 / 20 30 30 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 73 85 / 30 50 50 80
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 102 79 99 / 0 10 10 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 74 95 74 85 / 30 40 50 80
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 74 96 / 10 10 10 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 98 74 93 / 20 30 30 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 95 75 90 / 30 40 30 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 99 78 95 / 20 20 20 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 101 78 97 / 10 20 20 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...PLATT
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