747
FXUS64 KEWX 310634
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
134 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
NOON SUNDAY THROUGH NOON MONDAY.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
A STALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN THERE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY NOON SUNDAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY BEGINS TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH INTO THE
HILL COUNTRY. BY THAT TIME PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE/SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO OVER 2.2 INCHES OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL PLAINS. WITH THIS ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, WE ARE ANTICIPATING SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAIN OVER MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MAINLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND INTO THE
COASTAL PLAINS. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM NOON SUNDAY INTO
NOON MONDAY. IT IS HARD TO PIN POINT THE AREAS WHERE THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL FALL, HOWEVER, OUR CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM TO HIGH AS FAR AS LOCALIZED FLOODING. STORM RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
SPOTS UP TO 8 INCHES. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND CLOSELY MONITOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT IMPACTS MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THIS LABOR DAY HOLIDAY EXTENDED WEEKEND
(INTO MONDAY).
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY, HOWEVER, A SLOWLY WARMING TREND
IS FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION (06Z SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ONGOING SHRA/TSRA OVER KSOA TO K6R6 AREAS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT WITH NO IMPACTS TO ANY TAF SITES. EXPECT AREAS SHRA/TSRA
TO REDEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE PROB30S AT THE I-35 SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND
HAVE INTRODUCED THEM AT KDRT FOR THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, PATCHY IFR/MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE TEMPOS MVFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES FOR EARLY IN
THE MORNING. S TO SE WINDS BACK TO E TO NE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 88 72 94 / 60 60 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 87 72 93 / 60 60 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 89 71 95 / 70 70 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 85 68 89 / 60 60 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 88 73 95 / 70 80 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 86 69 91 / 60 60 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 88 71 93 / 60 80 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 88 70 95 / 60 70 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 87 72 92 / 50 60 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 89 73 94 / 70 70 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 90 75 95 / 60 80 20 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE
WITT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-
KARNES-KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...04
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