057
FXUS64 KEWX 311128
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
628 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
NOON SUNDAY THROUGH NOON MONDAY.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
A STALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN THERE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY NOON SUNDAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY BEGINS TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH INTO THE
HILL COUNTRY. BY THAT TIME PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE/SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO OVER 2.2 INCHES OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL PLAINS. WITH THIS ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, WE ARE ANTICIPATING SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAIN OVER MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MAINLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND INTO THE
COASTAL PLAINS. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM NOON SUNDAY INTO
NOON MONDAY. IT IS HARD TO PIN POINT THE AREAS WHERE THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL FALL, HOWEVER, OUR CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM TO HIGH AS FAR AS LOCALIZED FLOODING. STORM RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
SPOTS UP TO 8 INCHES. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND CLOSELY MONITOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT IMPACTS MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THIS LABOR DAY HOLIDAY EXTENDED WEEKEND
(INTO MONDAY).
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY, HOWEVER, A SLOWLY WARMING TREND
IS FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION (12Z SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ONGOING SHRA/TSRA NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS AND OVER CENTRAL TO
WESTERN TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING,
THEN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AND
PROB30S AT THE I-35 SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND AT
KDRT THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES FOR
PREVAILING IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MIX OF LIFR TO
MVFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS, HOWEVER HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPOS
FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES. LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. S TO SE WINDS SHIFT TO E TO NE TODAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS
PREVAIL. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 88 72 94 / 60 60 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 87 72 93 / 60 60 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 89 71 95 / 70 70 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 85 68 89 / 60 60 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 88 73 95 / 70 80 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 86 69 91 / 60 60 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 88 71 93 / 60 80 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 88 70 95 / 60 70 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 87 72 92 / 50 60 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 89 73 94 / 70 70 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 90 75 95 / 60 80 20 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE
WITT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-
KARNES-KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...04
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