427
FXUS64 KEWX 311755
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1255 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
NOON SUNDAY THROUGH NOON MONDAY.
- WE DRY OUT THROUGH THE WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING NEXT
WEEKEND
SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AS OF NOON TODAY SHOWS SHOWERS AND SOME
STORMS BACKBUILDING OFF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THATS OFF A MAIN
COMPLEX NEAR COLLEGE STATION THAT CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. MEANWHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO ERUPT
OFF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES ITS CRAWL ACROSS THE AREA.
PWATS SITTING ANYWHERE FROM 1.7 UP TO 2 INCHES WILL MAKE FOR ANY
STORMS TO BE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AS SUCH A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OUR
COUNTIES EXCEPT MAVERICK AND DIMMIT COUNTIES UNTIL NOON
TOMORROW. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH POCKETS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
AND ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA. IT'S STILL TOO DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT JUST WHERE EXACTLY THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AS
WE ARE EXPECTING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA AND CONTINUES IGNITING SHOWERS
AND STORMS. WPC HAS EXPANDED THEIR LEVEL 2 OF 4 RISK (SLIGHT)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TODAY INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR
ALMOST OUR ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT SOUTHERN MAVERICK AND DIMMIT
COUNTIES AND KEEPS US IN A LEVEL 1 OF 4 RISK (MARGINAL) FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LOOKING AT LATEST
GUIDANCE, MOST DEPICT THIS FIRST ROUND TO CONTINUE PUSHING OFF
TO THE EAST MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA INCLUDING
THE AUSTIN METRO. WE SHOULD SEE MORE STORMS FIRE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS EVENING AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE HILL COUNTRY
INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS AND POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN FORMING OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. TIME WILL TELL WITH WHAT HAPPENS
BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS FROM 40-50MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. REMEMBER TO
STAY WEATHER AWARE AND CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN AREAS THAT REMAIN IN THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN WITH MOST SEEING MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY WITH LOW
90S FOR MONDAY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN JUST IN TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS WE COULD SEE
MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM OR A DISTURBANCE MOVE OVER
MEXICO AND IMPACT OUR AREA HOWEVER ITS FAR TOO EARLY FOR ANY
SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL VALUES FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION (15Z SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION IN THE TAF AREA AS A FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. WHILE THERE IS SOME ONGOING SHOWER AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED
STORM ACTIVITY NORTH, CLOSER TO KAUS, THE ATMOSPHERE SEEMS TO BE BE
STABILIZING IN WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. FARTHER TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
WHERE THE TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE
UNSTABLE, THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL SEPARATE ROUNDS, WITH A FOCUS
BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND ONCE MORE OVERNIGHT. KDRT COULD BE THE TAF
SITE WITH THE POTENTIAL MOST IMPACTS, FOLLOWED BY KSAT AND KSSF.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT FOR A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
PERIOD WITH LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE, ANTICIPATE VARIABLE DIRECTIONS. WITHIN OR NEAR ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS, GUSTS COULD BE HIGHER TO AROUND 25 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 90 72 95 / 30 40 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 89 71 94 / 30 40 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 91 71 96 / 40 50 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 86 69 91 / 30 40 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 90 74 96 / 70 80 30 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 88 69 93 / 30 40 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 90 71 95 / 50 60 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 90 71 96 / 40 50 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 89 72 93 / 30 50 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 91 74 95 / 40 60 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 92 75 96 / 50 60 20 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ATASCOSA-BANDERA-
BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-EDWARDS-
FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-KENDALL-
KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-UVALDE-VAL
VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA.
SHORT TERM...MAGNUSSEN
LONG TERM...MAGNUSSEN
AVIATION...62
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