129
FXUS64 KEWX 010639
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
139 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOME PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH NOON TODAY
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE BUT NOT LIMITED TO THESE AREAS
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES SHOWING UP FOR
NEXT WEEKEND
SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUESDAY)
AREA DOPPLER RADARS ARE SHOWING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 1 AM CDT
MONDAY. SOME HIRES MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND WHILE OTHERS SHOW
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS KEEP SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
RIO GRANDE FOR MOST OF TODAY (MONDAY). FOR AREAS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL PLAINS, THINGS LOOK DRIER,
HOWEVER, A FEW MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST
WEATHER GUIDANCE, DECIDED TO CANCEL SEVERAL COUNTIES FROM THE
FLOOD WATCH WHILE KEPT THOSE ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 CORRIDOR
THROUGH NOON TODAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE OF SUNDAY'S RAIN IS NOW ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND EXTENDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE. THERE IS
LITTLE MOVEMENT TO THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
REMAINS OVER THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH TUESDAY. OVER THESE
LOCATIONS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN. OTHERWISE,
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BY
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, RAIN CHANCES RETURN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ACCORDING TO THE GFS
SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS. TIME WILL TELL AS
WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND AND GET HIRES DATA TO IDENTIFY THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. DAILY TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.
AVIATION (06Z MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
SHRA ARE DISSIPATING OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WHILE PATCHY IFR/MVFR
CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY. EXPECT AREAS OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS WHILE SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOP
OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY, AND RIO GRANDE AREAS, THEN
DRIFT TO THE EAST TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR, ESPECIALLY THE KSAT/KSSF
SITES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SHRA/TSRA DISRUPT THE RESTRICTED
CIGS AND THIS IS SHOWN IN THE TEMPOS FOR KSAT/KSSF. ADDITIONAL
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS AND
HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30S FOR THOSE TIME PERIODS. THERE ARE VERY LOW
CHANCES OF RESTRICTED CIGS/VSBYS MONDAY NIGHT AND HAVE LEFT MENTION
OUT. LIGHT WINDS OF 7 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED, THOUGH WIND GUSTS TO 40
KTS, AS WELL AS ERRATIC DIRECTIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHRA/TSRA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 95 72 96 / 10 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 95 71 95 / 10 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 96 70 98 / 10 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 91 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 98 75 99 / 10 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 93 70 93 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 70 95 71 98 / 10 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 96 70 98 / 10 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 72 93 70 95 / 10 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 96 73 98 / 10 10 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 97 75 99 / 10 10 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR BANDERA-BEXAR-BLANCO-
BURNET-COMAL-EDWARDS-GILLESPIE-HAYS-KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LLANO-
MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...04
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