754
FXUS64 KEWX 011436
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
936 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
UPDATE
THE FLOOD WATCH WAS RE-ORIENTED AND EXTENDED TO INCLUDE KINNEY,
MAVERICK, DIMMIT, AND ZAVALA COUNTIES WHERE ONGOING ACTIVITY AND
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE
AND ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE WATCH AREA. ELSEWHERE, THE FLOOD
WATCH WAS CANCELLED AS CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
HAS LOWERED. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY COULD
STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOME PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH NOON TODAY
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE BUT NOT LIMITED TO THESE AREAS
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES SHOWING UP FOR
NEXT WEEKEND
SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUESDAY)
AREA DOPPLER RADARS ARE SHOWING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 1 AM CDT
MONDAY. SOME HIRES MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND WHILE OTHERS SHOW
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS KEEP SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
RIO GRANDE FOR MOST OF TODAY (MONDAY). FOR AREAS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL PLAINS, THINGS LOOK DRIER,
HOWEVER, A FEW MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST
WEATHER GUIDANCE, DECIDED TO CANCEL SEVERAL COUNTIES FROM THE
FLOOD WATCH WHILE KEPT THOSE ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 CORRIDOR
THROUGH NOON TODAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE OF SUNDAY'S RAIN IS NOW ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND EXTENDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE. THERE IS
LITTLE MOVEMENT TO THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
REMAINS OVER THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH TUESDAY. OVER THESE
LOCATIONS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN. OTHERWISE,
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BY
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, RAIN CHANCES RETURN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ACCORDING TO THE GFS
SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS. TIME WILL TELL AS
WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND AND GET HIRES DATA TO IDENTIFY THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. DAILY TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.
AVIATION (15Z MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
SHRA/TSRA HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF OUR AREA. HAVE PROB30S
AT KDRT FOR THIS MORNING AND AT THE I-35 SITES FOR LATE MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RESTRICTIONS FOR CIGS/VSBYS HAVE BECOME
MORE ISOLATED EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT, VFR WILL PREVAIL
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, EXCEPT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING AND IN SHRA/TSRA. LIGHT WINDS OF 8 KTS WILL
PREVAIL AND MAINLY FROM THE N TO E. HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS TO 40
KTS, AS WELL AS ERRATIC DIRECTIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR SHRA/TSRA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 95 72 96 / 10 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 95 71 95 / 10 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 96 70 98 / 10 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 91 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 98 75 99 / 10 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 93 70 93 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 70 95 71 98 / 10 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 96 70 98 / 10 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 72 93 70 95 / 10 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 96 73 98 / 10 10 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 97 75 99 / 10 10 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DIMMIT-KINNEY-
MAVERICK-ZAVALA.
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...04
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