704
FXUS64 KEWX 011759
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1259 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KINNEY, MAVERICK, DIMMIT,
AND ZAVALA COUNTIES THROUGH 7PM THIS EVENING.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
DISTANCE.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
A WEAK STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS A REMNANT WEAK
LOW TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING WITH THE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. ELSEWHERE, ONLY SPOTTY COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
BEFORE SUNSET FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND BEYOND 00Z FOR ALL
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN 1/4 OF THE CWA.
WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AS THE FRONT FADES AND
MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. WARM AND DRY WEATHER WITH HIGHS BACK
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WILL RETURN TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON
MID SUN AND CLOUDS.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN LIGHT
NORTHWEST FLOW, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. COOLER MORNINGS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED DESPITE HOT AND DRY AFTERNOONS. PWATS WILL FALL
TO BETWEEN 1.00-1.25" AND ALLOW SOME MORNINGS IN THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY, THE HUMIDITY WILL START TO RETURN AS A POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SURFACE
MOISTURE RETURNS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. PWATS WILL ALSO SEE A MARKED INCREASE, IN THE
1.50-2.00" RANGE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SATURDAY AND BEYOND,
THERE HAS BEEN NOTABLE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY AMONGST
GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO HOW AN EPAC SYSTEM MAY WORK INTO
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. IF IT DOES INDEED MOVE INLAND AND REMNANT
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS INTACT BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT TO
TEXAS, WE COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT MATERIALIZE THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY SUNDAY. BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
WILL BE NEEDED TO DETERMINE ANY HEAVY PRECIP CONCERNS NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION (17Z MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
TO BKN CLOUD COVERAGE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCED
INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES.
HOWEVER, A STRAY TO ISOLATED SHOWER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND ANY IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH FOR
INCLUSION WITHIN THIS TAF PACKAGE. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT KDRT AND MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE
SAN ANTONIO TERMINALS IF ENOUGH LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS EITHER VARIABLE OR OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 95 73 97 / 10 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 94 71 97 / 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 96 71 98 / 10 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 91 70 92 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 97 74 98 / 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 92 70 95 / 10 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 95 70 98 / 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 95 70 98 / 10 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 72 93 71 95 / 10 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 96 74 99 / 10 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DIMMIT-KINNEY-
MAVERICK-ZAVALA.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...17/MMM
AVIATION...62
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