844
FXUS64 KEWX 012328
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
628 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
UPDATE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS DIMMIT, KINNEY, MAVERICK, AND ZAVALA
COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THESE COUNTIES. SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FEATURING
OCCASIONAL DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KINNEY, MAVERICK, DIMMIT,
AND ZAVALA COUNTIES THROUGH 7PM THIS EVENING.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
DISTANCE.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
A WEAK STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS A REMNANT WEAK
LOW TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING WITH THE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. ELSEWHERE, ONLY SPOTTY COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
BEFORE SUNSET FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND BEYOND 00Z FOR ALL
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN 1/4 OF THE CWA.
WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AS THE FRONT FADES AND
MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. WARM AND DRY WEATHER WITH HIGHS BACK
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WILL RETURN TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON
MID SUN AND CLOUDS.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN LIGHT
NORTHWEST FLOW, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. COOLER MORNINGS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED DESPITE HOT AND DRY AFTERNOONS. PWATS WILL FALL
TO BETWEEN 1.00-1.25" AND ALLOW SOME MORNINGS IN THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY, THE HUMIDITY WILL START TO RETURN AS A POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SURFACE
MOISTURE RETURNS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. PWATS WILL ALSO SEE A MARKED INCREASE, IN THE
1.50-2.00" RANGE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SATURDAY AND BEYOND,
THERE HAS BEEN NOTABLE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY AMONGST
GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO HOW AN EPAC SYSTEM MAY WORK INTO
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. IF IT DOES INDEED MOVE INLAND AND REMNANT
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS INTACT BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT TO
TEXAS, WE COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT MATERIALIZE THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY SUNDAY. BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
WILL BE NEEDED TO DETERMINE ANY HEAVY PRECIP CONCERNS NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION (00Z TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
TO BKN CLOUD COVERAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER
02Z. NO MVFR CIGS ARE ACCOUNTED FOR TONIGHT, BUT WILL NEED TO
TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AFTER MORE STABLE AIR SETTLES OVER THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NE BREEZE SHOULD PICK UP WITH
DAYTIME MIXING TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 95 73 97 / 10 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 94 71 97 / 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 96 71 98 / 10 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 91 70 92 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 97 74 98 / 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 92 70 95 / 10 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 95 70 98 / 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 95 70 98 / 10 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 72 93 71 95 / 10 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 96 74 99 / 10 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...17/MMM
AVIATION...18
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