930
FXUS64 KEWX 021116
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
616 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS
HIGH THIS FAR OUT.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT THAT BROUGHT LAST WEEKEND'S RAINY WEATHER IS
NOW MOSTLY OUT OF OUR REGION, RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER
RETURNING TO OUR AREA. A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS SWINGING
SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS, WHICH WILL
REINFORCE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND KEEP
THE FRONT OUT OF THE REGION. DRIER CONTINENTAL MID-LEVEL AIR
SHOULD MAKE FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TODAY, SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 90S IN THE WINTER GARDEN AREA
AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THE INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
SIPHON OFF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AT 700MB. THIS SLIGHT
DESTABILIZATION MAY SUPPORT A SPOTTY LOW-TOPPED SHOWER OR TWO IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OR HILL COUNTRY WHERE
LOW-LEVEL THETA-E IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER, BUT MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL BE DRY TODAY.
WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THANKS TO ANOMALOUS TROUGHING PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF CONUS. THIS LEADS TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A WARMER
LOBE OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS
OVER THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE ON THESE DAYS AS RIDGING IS
STRONGEST DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 103
ARE FORECAST. THE DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR ACCOMPANYING THESE HIGHS
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THE AIR TEMPERATURE.
OVER THE WEEKEND, OUR ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS NEWLY DESIGNATED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM IS
SOUTH OF MEXICO AS OF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHETHER
IT WILL CURVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS OR WEST AWAY FROM THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA LATER THIS WEEK, AT THE VERY LEAST MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE PULLED FROM THE
SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL
JET. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE, THE MIDWEEK RIDGE
OVER TEXAS COULD BE DISPLACED EASTWARD, ALLOWING THAT TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM, SO IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS FOR THE WEEKEND. ALONG THOSE
LINES, THE NAEFS AND ENS ENSEMBLE SUITES AND THE ECMWF EFI HAVE NOT
YET SHOWN STRONG INDICATIONS FOR ANOMALOUS CONDITIONS DURING THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION (12Z TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOST
CLOUDS AOA FL035. ISOLD PATCHES OF BR WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON
THE SITES THIS MORNING AND HAVE REMOVED THE TEMPOS. LIGHT WINDS
INCREASE TO MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS BY MIDDAY WITH
MIXING, THEN BECOME LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 97 70 100 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 97 68 100 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 98 69 100 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 92 67 96 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 99 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 94 66 99 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 70 97 69 100 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 98 67 101 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 71 95 68 98 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 97 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 99 73 101 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM...TRAN
AVIATION...04
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