323
FXUS64 KEWX 030538
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1238 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH THURSDAY)
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS DRY MID-LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL IN FROM THE NORTH
FROM THE GREAT PLAINS. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS TEXAS THIS PAST
EVENING INDICATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ALOFT OF 3 TO 10 PERCENT
IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE WITHIN THAT BAND OF DRY NORTHERLY FLOW, AND
THIS IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THOSE QUIET CONDITIONS. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S IN THE
HILL COUNTRY AND UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FOR THE RIO GRANDE, I-35
CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL PLAINS. LIKE TUESDAY, A SMALL AND BRIEF LONE
SHOWER OR TWO COULD CROP UP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING, BUT WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DRY
NORTHERLY WIND STARTS TO SLIDE MORE OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE CALM WEATHER COMBINED WITH LOWER DEW POINTS WILL
MAKE FOR A RELATIVELY COOLER THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
NORTH OF I-10. THAT SAME RIDGE IS PAIRED WITH A THERMAL RIDGE THAT
WILL ALSO SUPPORT A LARGE TEMPERATURE SWING DURING THE DAY, SO
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A TRIPLE
DIGIT DRY HEAT PREVAILING FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THAT
AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR SKIES. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS FOR THURSDAY ARE
GENERALLY BETWEEN ABOUT 97 TO 102 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THURSDAY CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD DRIFT INTO
FRIDAY, BUT ENOUGH OF THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE AROUND TO GIVE SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S WITH
POCKETS OF 100-DEGREE HIGHS.
AFTER FRIDAY, THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUBTLY AMPLIFIES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS TEXAS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRAW A
PLUME OF EASTERN PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM LORENA, WHICH
IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY WITH
ITS VORTICITY AND MOISTURE BEING SHEARED AWAY. AS THIS ENERGY AND
MOISTURE IS INGESTED INTO AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SPREADS ACROSS
TEXAS, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER OUR REGION WITH THE HIGHEST ODDS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BASED ON THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE MODELED
DISTURBANCES.
THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS ACROSS THE MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
THAT MOISTURE LEVELS OVER OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE RISE THIS WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM TS LORENA OR ITS REMNANTS OVERLAPS WITH AN
UPTICK IN MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE GULF, WITH COMBINED OUTPUTS
FROM THE GEFS, ENS, AND GEPS ENSEMBLE SUITES INDICATING PWATS LIKELY
REACHING AT LEAST 1.8 TO 2.1 INCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS
INDICATES THAT THE ENVIRONMENT OVER OUR REGION COULD SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THOSE
RAINS LARGELY DUE TO DISCREPANCIES WITH HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING
THE REMNANTS OF TS LORENA. THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN ONE OF THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS, KEEPING THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM INTACT AND COMBINING IT WITH THE TROUGH TO PRODUCE A
MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TEXAS, RESULTING IN MORE
AGGRESSIVE RAINFALL PROJECTIONS. THE ECMWF AND CMC DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUTS HAVE SO FAR STAYED THE COURSE WITH A LESS AGGRESSIVE
APPROACH, ONE THAT FEATURES A WEAKER TROUGH WITH SOME BROADER AND
ILL-DEFINED RECONSTITUTED COMPONENTS OF TS LORENA'S REMNANT
VORTICITY AS OPPOSED TO A DIRECT PHASING OF THE TWO DISTURBANCES.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE RAINFALL OUTPUTS FROM THOSE MODELS ARE LOWER. THE
WIDE UNCERTAINTY DISPLAYED IN THE GLOBAL SYNOPTIC MODELS IS ALSO
REFLECTED IN THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS WHICH SHOW A WIDE RANGE
OF OUTCOMES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT'S LEFT OF TS LORENA.
WHILE IT'S TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SPECIFIC RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THE
MOIST AIR AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WARRANT CLOSELY MONITORING
TRENDS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER
PERIOD MAY START TO WIND DOWN TUESDAY AS DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY BEHIND THE OUTGOING TROUGH.
AVIATION (06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A MIX A
THIN, HIGH CIRRUS AND FEW-SCT AFTERNOON CUMULUS FIELD. VARIABLE
WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT OVERNIGHT, BECOMING NW TO N 5-8 KT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 101 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 101 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 69 101 73 99 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 66 97 72 96 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 101 76 100 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 100 73 99 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 101 72 99 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 102 71 101 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 99 73 98 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 101 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM...TRAN
AVIATION...76
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