538
FXUS64 KEWX 122345
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
645 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES WITH LOW TO NO CHANCES FOR
RAIN.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY)
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL CENTER OVER TEXAS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD SUNDAY. THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US PUSHING THIS RIDGE EAST WILL
NOT EXTEND INTO THE LOWER LATITUDES SO THE RIDGE INFLUENCE OVER
SOUTH TX WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE THIS
ALLOWS FOR LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND, THERE IS
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STACKED UP OVER THE RIO GRANDE FOR A
FEW DAYTIME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ONE WITH A BRIEF CLAP OF
THUNDER. ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES, OR TYPICAL SEASONAL VALUES
FOR A STABLE WEATHER PATTERN, ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE PLACEMENT
OF THE RIDGE, BECAUSE THE HEIGHT FIELD MAXIMA ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH. THE ONSHORE INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE
OFFSET BY DRY AIR MIXING FROM ALOFT, HELPING TO PUT A LID ON
HEAT INDEX VALUES. MORNING HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN PLENTY HIGH
AND SUPPORT SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDINESS, BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS BELOW 70 DEGREES OVER ABOUT HALF THE AREA
EACH NIGHT.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGING OVER TX CONTINUES TO FLATTEN
EASTWARD AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE INTO THE
PLAINS STATES. THERE WERE PRIOR CONCERNS THAT THE INSTABILITY IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC MIGHT TRICKLE MORE ENERGY INTO TX, BUT THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE STRENGTHENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
MEXICO MORE. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE PLAINS STATES GETS SOME REINFORCING ENERGY TO DEEPEN BACK
SOUTH TO WHERE A POTENTIALLY NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN SETS UP OVER
TX. WHILE THE IMPACTS ON SOUTH TX MAY ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO IN
TERMS OF MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES, THERE COULD BE A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION BEYOND JUST THE COASTAL
PRAIRIES AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LOW MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS TO BE A
LIMITING FACTOR, HOT AND MOSTLY DRY REMAINS THE NARRATIVE
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION (00Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISOLATED SHOWERS SW OF SAT AND SE OF 5T9 ARE FORECAST TO
DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH FEW-SCT AFTERNOON CUMULUS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT 09Z-15Z IN A REGION ROUGHLY
BOUNDED BY ERV-UVA-5T9-DRT. HREF INDICATES A 60-90% PROBABILITY
OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THIS REGION SATURDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 96 72 96 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 96 70 96 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 96 69 96 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 92 69 91 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 93 74 93 / 0 10 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 69 95 70 94 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 95 69 94 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 97 69 96 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 96 69 94 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 96 72 95 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 97 72 97 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...18
AVIATION...76
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