264
FXUS64 KEWX 162339 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
639 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE WEEKEND
- VERY LOW (5-20%) RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEEKEND; SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES (20-35%) EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM (THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
A FAIR AND PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING CENTERED OVER MEXICO. MODEST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE AVERAGE, INTO THE
MID 90S FOR MANY, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY CLOSER TO AVERAGE. THERE
COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME
HEATING FOR A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS, OR EVEN A STRAY STORM, FOR THE
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 THIS AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER MEXICO FROM LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY START TO AMPLIFY AND NUDGE
NORTHWARDS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. WHILE THE HEIGHTS COULD
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, DON'T EXPECT
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL WEATHER REGIME ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN ABOVE AVERAGE WHILE THE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT LOOK TO TREND
PERHAPS SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID WITH LOWS THAT ARE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER. THE RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN AT MOST IN THE 10-20% RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD SEE THE BEST FOCUS
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH A TONGUE OF GREATER MOISTURE
OUT WEST WHILE THE WEEKEND MAY BE MORE FOCUSED FROM THE COASTAL
PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES ONCE ENTERING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM MEXICO INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO
REPOSITION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
DISTURBANCE TO ROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND SLIDE
SOUTHWARDS INTO OR THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS SOME
SIGNIFICANT LOCATION AND TIMING DIFFERENCES, ALONG WITH RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY, WITHIN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING THIS
DISTURBANCE. A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD MAY ALSO BE TIED IN
WITH THIS AS WELL. WE'LL ELECT TO GO WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES (20-35%) DURING THIS PERIOD FOR NOW WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
AVIATION (00Z TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR TERMINALS. SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL ONLY MENTION FEW-SCT LOW CLOUDS FOR
NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 95 72 96 / 10 10 0 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 95 69 95 / 10 10 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 95 69 96 / 10 10 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 91 69 91 / 10 10 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 71 92 73 92 / 0 0 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 69 93 70 93 / 10 20 0 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 67 94 68 94 / 0 10 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 67 95 68 95 / 10 10 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 95 69 95 / 10 20 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 94 71 94 / 10 10 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 95 72 96 / 10 10 0 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...27
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page