917
FXUS64 KEWX 041800
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
100 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE 2ND WEEK OF OCTOBER
WITH LOW END (10-20%) RAIN CHANCES MONDAY-THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
THE LATEST GOES 19 MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND A BROAD TROUGH
CENTERED OVER UTAH. FOR NOW, OUR REGION REMAINS IN A BIT OF A
DEADZONE WITH NOT MUCH STEERING FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
STATE. THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH INCREASED
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT AT LEAST THE MORNINGS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE, GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS NOT PARTICULARLY EXCITING EITHER. THE UL
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH EAST, QUICKLY
BEING REPLACED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGING. INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN LOW END RAIN CHANCES AT SHOWERS ON MONDAY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND THEN FURTHER INLAND TUESDAY-THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE
WEDNESDAY, BUT IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS INTO OUR REGION.
THAT MEANS A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND.
OUR DROUGHT CONTINUES TO WORSEN DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL
SINCE MID- AUGUST, SO HOPEFULLY A PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE HORIZON
AT SOME POINT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF MONTH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY ALONG WITH FEW-SCT
CLOUDS GENERALLY IN THE 5K-7K AGL RANGE. CLOUDS WILL THIN TOWARD MID-
EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE TOWARD SUNRISE TO RESULT IN
SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. FARTHER WEST TOWARD
DRT, MOISTURE LEVELS APPEAR A LITTLE HIGHER IN CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE WILL MENTION SOME
TEMPO MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 13-16Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 67 94 70 92 / 0 0 0 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 66 93 69 92 / 0 0 0 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 65 93 68 92 / 0 0 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 88 67 88 / 0 0 0 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 92 71 94 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 91 68 91 / 0 0 0 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 92 69 92 / 0 0 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 94 68 93 / 0 0 0 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 66 93 69 92 / 0 10 0 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 92 71 92 / 0 0 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 94 72 94 / 0 0 0 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...PLATT
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