967
FXUS64 KEWX 050555
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1255 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE OCTOBER WARMTH CONTINUES WITH MINOR (10-20%) RAIN
CHANCES EARLY TO MIDWEEK
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
A QUIET BUT WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS AS THE REGION IS IN-BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST THAT LOOKS
TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN INTO THE BACKGROUND FLOW BY EARLY
MONDAY. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEVELS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE ABLE TO HELP SUPPORT FOR THE SEA
BREEZE TO REACH PORTIONS OF OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES, WHICH MAY
HELP GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES ARE TO REMAIN
MINIMAL WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH TODAY BEFORE SKIES TREND
MORE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 ON MONDAY. THE
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE
LOW TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE. THE MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SUB-TROPCIAL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH EARLY
WEEK AND SLIDES WESTWARD ATOP THE STATE LATER DURING THE WEEK AND
TOWARDS THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY CONTINUES
TO BE THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS, PERHAPS A STRAY
STORM, AS PWATS INCREASE UP INTO THE 50 TO 75 PERCENTILE RANGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THAT SAID, THESE CHANCES ARE RATHER SMALL
WITH THE MAJORITY REMAINING RAIN FREE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
BE GENERATED WITH SOME HELP FROM A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRIFTING INTO THE WACO AREA. OTHERWISE, THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS COMING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS WELL. RAIN CHANCES ARE TO
THEN DWINDLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE RIDGE POSITIONING MORE ATOP OF THE REGION. THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT BUT NIGHTS DO BECOME A TAD
MORE HUMID.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE. A REGION OF LOW CLOUDS MAY
ESTABLISH BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND THE RIO GRANDE NEAR OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BLEED OVER TO THE TERMINALS
BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, THERE MAY BE
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING AT TIMES. THE WINDS TREND THE LIGHTEST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, OTHERWISE EXPECT FOR WINDS OF
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 70 93 71 / 0 0 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 94 68 93 69 / 0 0 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 93 68 92 69 / 0 0 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 67 89 68 / 0 0 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 93 70 94 72 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 91 67 91 68 / 0 0 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 68 92 69 / 0 0 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 94 68 93 68 / 0 0 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 93 69 93 70 / 0 0 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 70 92 71 / 0 0 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 94 71 94 72 / 0 0 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...62
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