712
FXUS64 KEWX 051040
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
540 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE OCTOBER WARMTH CONTINUES WITH MINOR (10-20%) RAIN
CHANCES EARLY TO MIDWEEK
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
A QUIET BUT WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS AS THE REGION IS IN-BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST THAT LOOKS
TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN INTO THE BACKGROUND FLOW BY EARLY
MONDAY. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEVELS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE ABLE TO HELP SUPPORT FOR THE SEA
BREEZE TO REACH PORTIONS OF OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES, WHICH MAY
HELP GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES ARE TO REMAIN
MINIMAL WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH TODAY BEFORE SKIES TREND
MORE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 ON MONDAY. THE
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE
LOW TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE. THE MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SUB-TROPCIAL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH EARLY
WEEK AND SLIDES WESTWARD ATOP THE STATE LATER DURING THE WEEK AND
TOWARDS THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY CONTINUES
TO BE THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS, PERHAPS A STRAY
STORM, AS PWATS INCREASE UP INTO THE 50 TO 75 PERCENTILE RANGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THAT SAID, THESE CHANCES ARE RATHER SMALL
WITH THE MAJORITY REMAINING RAIN FREE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
BE GENERATED WITH SOME HELP FROM A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRIFTING INTO THE WACO AREA. OTHERWISE, THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS COMING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS WELL. RAIN CHANCES ARE TO
THEN DWINDLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE RIDGE POSITIONING MORE ATOP OF THE REGION. THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT BUT NIGHTS DO BECOME A TAD
MORE HUMID.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. A REGION OF LOW CLOUDS
HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND
THE RIO GRANDE PAST SUNRISE. SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS COULD BLEED
OVER TO THE TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY KDRT BUT NO IMPACTS AT THIS ARE
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING AT
TIMES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE WINDS TREND THE LIGHTEST THROUGH
MID-MORNING, OTHERWISE EXPECT FOR WINDS OF AROUND 12 KTS OR LESS
TO PREVAIL FROM OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AND BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A FEW LOW CLOUDS COULD RETURN
ACROSS THE REGION ENTERING INTO MONDAY MORNING AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 70 93 71 / 0 0 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 94 68 93 69 / 0 0 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 93 68 92 69 / 0 0 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 67 89 68 / 0 0 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 93 70 94 72 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 91 67 91 68 / 0 0 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 68 92 69 / 0 0 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 94 68 93 68 / 0 0 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 93 69 93 70 / 0 0 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 70 92 71 / 0 0 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 94 71 94 72 / 0 0 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...62
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