526
FXUS64 KEWX 052335
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
635 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE OCTOBER WARMTH CONTINUES WITH MINOR (10-20%) RAIN
CHANCES EARLY TO MIDWEEK
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
GOES EAST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE EXPANSE OF DRY
AIR DRAPED ACROSS TEXAS WRAPPING INTO AND AROUND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SOUTH OF LOUISIANA. THIS IS THE IMPRINT OF 5 TO 20 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOMINATING MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE
700 MB, SUPPRESSING OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN IN OUR AREA. A FEW OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND RRFS DEPICT A FEW ISOLATED
AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY, BUT WITH MODELED PROFILES SHOWING STRONG CAPPING BELOW THE
FREEZING LEVEL, ANY SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF AND WEAK.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO START FEELING THE
INFLUENCE OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US AND DRIFT NORTHWARD
INTO EAST TEXAS TOMORROW, KEEPING SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WITHIN THE
DRIER FLOW ALOFT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN TANDEM
WITH THE LOW AND MINOR MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SUPPORTS A LOW
CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 LATE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
WEATHER. HIGHS MONDAY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH LOW TO MID 90S
THROUGHOUT MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH A WEAK SOUTHERLY
MOISTENING WIND IN PLACE, SLIGHTLY MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE
TO BE EXPECTED, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 MONDAY MORNING
AND LOWS IN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE WEEK UNFORTUNATELY LOOK TO DO LITTLE TO
THWART WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE AND EXPAND WESTWARD INTO
TEXAS OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK, WITH THE CORE OF THE RIDGE
SLIDING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME MODEST INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FROM CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A WEAK FRONT OR
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE NORTH MARGINALLY ADDING TO THESE CHANCES
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE OVERHEAD RIDGE WILL KEEP A LID ON RAIN
CHANCES AND LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL. AFTER THURSDAY, THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER OUR AREA, RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHWARD LOW-LEVEL WIND THAT CLEARS OUT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNIFORMLY STEADY
AND ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION, HOLDING MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S OUTSIDE OF THE POCKETS OF UPPER 80S IN THE HILL COUNTRY.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES HEADING TO MIDWEEK WITH
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEAK CAUSE THEM TO EASE BACK DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR MOST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BKN STRATUS IS FORECAST
BY THE HREF TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING AROUND 09Z-13Z SOUTH
AND WEST OF SAT. HREF IS INDICATING AROUND A 60-70% CHANCE OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND 40-60% CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS IN THIS STRATUS. THIS
SHOULD MIX AFTER 15Z MONDAY. DUE TO LOWER PROBABILITIES AT SAT/SSF
WE HAVE LEFT THIS A SCT GROUP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 94 71 94 / 0 0 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 67 94 70 94 / 0 0 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 93 69 94 / 0 0 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 66 89 69 89 / 0 0 0 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 93 72 94 / 0 0 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 91 69 91 / 0 0 10 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 92 69 93 / 10 0 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 66 94 69 95 / 0 0 10 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 67 94 69 94 / 0 10 10 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 92 72 92 / 0 0 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 94 72 94 / 0 0 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...76
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