539
FXUS64 KEWX 061051
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
551 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES MORE LIKE THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER THAN THE
FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER.
- TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS 15%-20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS TX TONIGHT WITH WEAK FLOW
AT 500MB. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO LOOSE AND SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS OUR CWA. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
ABOUT THE SAME AS 24 HOURS AGO WITH TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR 70 TO THE
LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S. WE
DON'T EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE. TODAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
AND RAIN FREE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL CLOSER TO HIGHS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
SEPTEMBER RATHER THAN THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. TUESDAY THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
BRING MOISTER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW (15%-20%)
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER, BUT THE REST OF
THE CWA WILL HAVE HIGHS ABOUT THE SAME AS MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLING AS IT MAKES IT TO OUR REGION WITH LITTLE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BRINGING SLIGHTLY MOISTER AIR. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE ANOTHER LOW CHANCE (15%-20%) FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BY THURSDAY THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE DISSIPATED AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REGAIN
DOMINANCE OVER TEXAS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WITH THE FRONT WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE WEEK AND ALLOW FOR COOLER
MORNINGS DURING THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PRIMARILY CONTINUE AT THE AREA TAF SITES. A REGION
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAD FORMED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT THIS REGION OF CLOUDS IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AND SHRINKING IN SIZE. LOW CLOUDS ARE NOW BEGINNING
TO ESTABLISH AND EXPAND ACROSS AREA WEST OF SAN ANTONIO. FEW LOW
CLOUDS COULD REACH SAT/SSF/DRT BUT THE GREATER CONCENTRATION WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN THE TERMINALS WHERE AREAL COVERAGE MAY BECOME SCT
TO BKN. OTHERWISE, ANTICIPATE FOR SOME MID-LEVEL CUMULUS INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE WINDS ARE TO TREND EASTERLY TO
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AT
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. OTHERWISE, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 94 71 94 71 / 0 10 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 93 70 94 70 / 0 0 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 93 68 93 69 / 0 0 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 68 89 68 / 0 10 20 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 93 72 93 73 / 0 10 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 92 69 92 70 / 0 10 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 68 93 69 / 0 0 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 94 68 95 69 / 0 0 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 93 69 94 69 / 0 0 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 71 92 72 / 0 0 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 94 72 95 73 / 0 0 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...62
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