050
FXUS64 KEWX 071049
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
549 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS 15%-25% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
- TEMPERATURES MORE LIKE THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER THAN THE
FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST TO TX
TONIGHT WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 500MB. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST IS PRODUCING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
OUR CWA. THE AIRMASS HAS MOISTENED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL WARM IN THE 70S AND 80S. THERE IS A COLD FRONT MOVING
DOWN THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT. TODAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND BRING
MOISTER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAY REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF
OUR CWA BY THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINATION OF FACTORS WILL MEAN
15% TO 25% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE FORCING WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LOOKS PRETTY WEAK AND MOST PLACES WILL NOT SEE ANY RAIN.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, AND THE APPROACHING FRONT FROM
THE NORTH MAY KEEP HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS MOIST AIR WILL
SURGE UP THE RIO GRANDE. DAYTIME HEATING MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
BY THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE DISSIPATED AND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL REGAIN DOMINANCE OVER TEXAS. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN LATE WEEK AND ALLOW FOR COOLER MORNINGS FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A MIX OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER
THE REGION. THE LOW CLOUDS FEATURING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS FORMED
PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 AND HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR. IT
IS IMPACTING BOTH SAT AND SSF AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. THE OTHER TAF SITES, AUS AND DRT, LOOK TO STAY VFR THIS
MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THE CONFIDENCE THAT ANY SHOWER
IMPACTS A TAF SITE, STILL REMAINS TOO LOW FOR THE INCLUSION OF
SHRA OR VCSH WITHIN THIS TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO KEEP MVFR CEILINGS TO THE SOUTH BUT DO EXPECT AREA MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO REMAIN. AREA BREEZES WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT AROUND 10 MPH
OR LESS WITH A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TURN IN DIRECTIONS BY TONIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 71 92 70 / 20 10 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 94 70 92 69 / 20 10 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 93 69 92 68 / 20 20 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 68 87 67 / 20 10 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 73 91 73 / 20 20 30 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 91 70 91 68 / 10 10 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 70 92 69 / 20 20 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 94 69 93 68 / 20 10 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 94 70 93 68 / 10 10 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 72 91 72 / 20 20 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 94 73 93 73 / 20 20 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...62
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