949
FXUS64 KEWX 230546
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1246 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN MUCH COOLER FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION ON THURSDAY TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL STRENGTHEN A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS BRINGING AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS TO OUR AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS. A
DEEPER MOIST LAYER AND STRONGER FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW STREAMER
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING WITH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS, EXCEPT FOR
THE WINTER GARDEN REGION DUE TO WEAKER FORCING AND LESS MOISTURE
OVER THAT AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WHILE
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER DUE TO INCREASING DEWPOINTS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
FORCING BY THE TROUGH, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET, AND A PACIFIC
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO ONE
OR TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA. THE FIRST
ROUND WITH THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ENTERS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING, HILL COUNTRY TO I-35 CORRIDOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THEN EXITS TO THE COASTAL PLAINS/US 77
CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE SECOND ROUND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY/I-35 CORRIDOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN EXITS TO THE COASTAL PLAINS/US 77 CORRIDOR SATURDAY
LATE EVENING/NIGHT. THIS SECOND ROUND IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE
AIRMASS MAY BE WORKED OVER FROM THE FIRST ROUND AND WILL RELY ON
SOME CLEARING TO ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN.
MODERATE LAPSE RATES, SHEAR, AND INSTABILITY INDICATES A POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS. SPC HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR OUR
AREA. WITH PWS RISING TO NEAR 2 INCHES, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS, ESPECIALLY IF THE SECOND ROUND BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN. WPC HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY INTO MOST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR, WITH A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR THE REMAINDER
OF OUR AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH ELSEWHERE.
A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPS RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, BRIEF PERIODS OF
WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS, AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES "COOL" TO NEAR AVERAGE ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN, THEN SHOW A WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES NEXT WEEK WILL
ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
COOL DOWN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS FALL
SEASON, THUS FAR, WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
COOL AIRMASS REMAINS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE OCTOBER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS MVFR CIGS START TO DEVELOP AT
OR AROUND 07Z AROUND THE SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS AND AROUND 11Z FOR
KAUS. ALSO, MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT KDRT AROUND 12Z. THERE IS A
SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS ALL LOCAL AREA SITES. BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING,
ALL AREA TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
FLOW IS DOMINATING THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN
INCREASES TO A 10 TO 12 KNOTS RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KNOTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INCLUDING DRT. MVFR
CIGS RETURN OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL AREA SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 70 87 66 / 0 10 50 90
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 68 87 65 / 0 10 50 80
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 90 67 89 67 / 10 10 40 80
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 87 68 83 64 / 0 10 50 90
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 71 87 66 / 0 10 20 70
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 67 86 63 / 0 10 50 90
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 90 67 89 65 / 10 10 20 70
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 67 89 65 / 10 10 50 80
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 67 87 66 / 10 0 60 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 70 88 68 / 10 10 30 70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 70 90 69 / 10 0 20 70
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...17
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