210
FXUS64 KEWX 232022
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
322 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ACTIVE PATTERN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND BELOW NORMAL BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS REGION
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TODAY ARE
STILL ON TRACK TO PEAK IN THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TONIGHT AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET, SOME SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND NEARBY I-35
CORRIDOR. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35/I-37 CORRIDORS.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS STILL IN THE FORECAST AS
WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE HI-RES AND GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN SHOWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU BY MID-EVENING AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR ASCENT (AIDED BY A DRYLINE/PAC FRONT) WILL ARRIVE.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CLUSTERS TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND
NEARBY I-35 CORRIDOR. THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF AN EAGLE PASS TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO AUSTIN
LINE, WITH A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ELSEWHERE. THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN IS DAMAGING WINDS, WITH A LITTLE LOWER
RISK OF LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
SHOWS A LEVEL 2 OF 4 RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NORTH OF A
DEL RIO TO AUSTIN LINE, WITH A LEVEL 1 OF 4 RISK ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
AS THE MENTIONED LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES EASTWARD
SATURDAY MORNING, A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE FIRST
ROUND OF STRONGER FORCING MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER.
MORNING RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL SERVE TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
HOWEVER, ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HEATING
TO RESTART THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. THE WEATHER PATTERN STILL
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE PACIFIC FRONT NEAR
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY MID-AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE TO OUR WEST AND A 90-100KT
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE OVERHEAD. FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS, IT APPEARS THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-35/I-37 CORRIDORS WILL BE FAVORED. FOR SATURDAY, THE SEVERE
STORM THREAT WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER WITH A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR
MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. IN ADDITION, A LEVEL 1 OF 4 RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY HAVE GRADUALLY
TRENDED UPWARD OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE WINTER GARDEN REGION WHERE 1/4" OR LESS
ARE FORECAST. AMOUNTS INCH UPWARD TO 1-1.5" ALONG THE HIGHWAY 90
CORRIDOR, WITH THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR NEAR AND NORTH
OF NEW BRAUNFELS IN THE 2-3" RANGE. THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN. SOILS ARE DRY ACROSS THE REGION AND ANY RAINFALL WILL BE
WELCOMED. HOWEVER, WE ARE CONCERNED WITH THE RAINFALL RATES THAT
MAY LEAD TO SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. WE HAVE HELD OFF ON
A FLOOD WATCH, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PORTIONS OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY. AT LEAST A FEW OF THE HI-RES MODELS
ALSO SHOW SOME OF THE HIGHER RAIN TOTALS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION.
A DRYING AND WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. WE STILL EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING DOWNWARD, BUT STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. SOME MORE
NOTICEABLE COOLING IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR A
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WIND GENERALLY REMAINS
UNDER 12 KNOTS, THOUGH SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS UP TO 22 KNOTS MAY BE
SEEN IN THE WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS REDEVELOP
TONIGHT AROUND 07-08Z FOR I-35 SITES AND SLIGHTLY LATER AT KDRT. A
FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEEN MAINLY AT KAUS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND A PROB30 GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 88 67 82 / 10 40 80 90
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 88 67 82 / 10 40 80 90
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 88 67 84 / 10 30 70 80
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 83 65 78 / 10 40 90 90
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 71 88 68 86 / 0 20 70 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 86 65 80 / 10 30 90 90
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 67 89 67 87 / 10 10 60 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 90 67 85 / 10 30 70 80
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 87 68 83 / 10 40 70 100
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 88 69 85 / 10 20 70 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 90 70 87 / 10 10 60 60
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PLATT
LONG TERM....PLATT
AVIATION...27
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