488
FXUS64 KEWX 232336
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
636 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ACTIVE PATTERN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND BELOW NORMAL BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS REGION
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TODAY ARE
STILL ON TRACK TO PEAK IN THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TONIGHT AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET, SOME SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND NEARBY I-35
CORRIDOR. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35/I-37 CORRIDORS.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS STILL IN THE FORECAST AS
WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE HI-RES AND GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN SHOWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU BY MID-EVENING AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR ASCENT (AIDED BY A DRYLINE/PAC FRONT) WILL ARRIVE.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CLUSTERS TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND
NEARBY I-35 CORRIDOR. THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF AN EAGLE PASS TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO AUSTIN
LINE, WITH A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ELSEWHERE. THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN IS DAMAGING WINDS, WITH A LITTLE LOWER
RISK OF LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
SHOWS A LEVEL 2 OF 4 RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NORTH OF A
DEL RIO TO AUSTIN LINE, WITH A LEVEL 1 OF 4 RISK ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
AS THE MENTIONED LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES EASTWARD
SATURDAY MORNING, A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE FIRST
ROUND OF STRONGER FORCING MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER.
MORNING RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL SERVE TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
HOWEVER, ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HEATING
TO RESTART THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. THE WEATHER PATTERN STILL
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE PACIFIC FRONT NEAR
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY MID-AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE TO OUR WEST AND A 90-100KT
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE OVERHEAD. FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS, IT APPEARS THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-35/I-37 CORRIDORS WILL BE FAVORED. FOR SATURDAY, THE SEVERE
STORM THREAT WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER WITH A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR
MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. IN ADDITION, A LEVEL 1 OF 4 RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY HAVE GRADUALLY
TRENDED UPWARD OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE WINTER GARDEN REGION WHERE 1/4" OR LESS
ARE FORECAST. AMOUNTS INCH UPWARD TO 1-1.5" ALONG THE HIGHWAY 90
CORRIDOR, WITH THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR NEAR AND NORTH
OF NEW BRAUNFELS IN THE 2-3" RANGE. THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN. SOILS ARE DRY ACROSS THE REGION AND ANY RAINFALL WILL BE
WELCOMED. HOWEVER, WE ARE CONCERNED WITH THE RAINFALL RATES THAT
MAY LEAD TO SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. WE HAVE HELD OFF ON
A FLOOD WATCH, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PORTIONS OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY. AT LEAST A FEW OF THE HI-RES MODELS
ALSO SHOW SOME OF THE HIGHER RAIN TOTALS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION.
A DRYING AND WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. WE STILL EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING DOWNWARD, BUT STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. SOME MORE
NOTICEABLE COOLING IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR A
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
ISOLATED SHRA IS ONGOING ALONG A BROAD AREA SPANNING FROM KT35 TO
KGYB TO KT20, NOT IMPACTING TAF SITES, AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
03Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT WITH
STRONGER WINDS AT KDRT AND VICINITY. EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
CIGS TONIGHT AROUND 07Z AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF AND BY 11Z AT KDRT. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 12Z, AND HAVE
ADDED BRIEF IFR TEMPO AT DRT GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LATEST
GUIDANCE. CIGS LIFT TO VFR BY 16Z-18Z AND BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
10 TO 15 KTS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30 FOR KAUS FOR SLIGHT PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, A LINE OF TSRA/+TSRA MOVING WEST TO EAST WILL LIKELY
IMPACT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT MENTION IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS AS THIS
EVENT ENTERS THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 92 70 88 67 / 10 10 40 80
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 68 88 67 / 10 10 40 80
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 90 68 88 67 / 10 10 30 70
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 69 83 65 / 10 10 40 90
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 91 71 88 68 / 0 0 20 70
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 68 86 65 / 10 10 30 90
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 90 67 89 67 / 0 10 10 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 92 68 90 67 / 10 10 30 70
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 92 68 87 68 / 10 10 40 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 90 70 88 69 / 0 10 20 70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 92 70 90 70 / 0 10 10 60
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PLATT
LONG TERM....PLATT
AVIATION...TRAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page