480
FXUS64 KEWX 241052
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
552 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN MUCH COOLER,
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY, THEN
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS
IS IN PLACE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A MODERATE LOWER LEVEL FLOW
WILL GENERATE SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG AND
EAST OF I-35 THIS MORNING, THEN HEATING OF AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ACTIVITY SPREADING
FARTHER WEST OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU LATE MORNING
INTO AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN SHOW IS STILL ON TRACK THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A PACIFIC FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, FORM
INTO AN MCS OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN MOVE
OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO I-35 CORRIDOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT.
THE MCS WEAKENS WHILE APPROACHING THE US 77 CORRIDOR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN
UNCERTAIN FOR THE SECOND ROUND. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALLOW HEATING
TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS ALONG WITH FORCING FROM A PACIFIC FRONT,
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE EAST IN THE EVENING TO EXIT
EAST OF US 77 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SHEAR, AND INSTABILITY INDICATES A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
THE MAIN THREATS. STRONG FORCING OF PWS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL LEAD TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. A COMPOSITE OF SPC/WPC OUTLOOKS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOWS SLIGHT RISKS (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY, PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN
ANTONIO NORTHEAST, THEN TO THE US 77 CORRIDOR AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAINS. THERE ARE MARGINAL (LEVEL 1) RISKS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING ARE
.25" OR LESS OVER THE WINTER GARDEN, 0.5-1.5" ALONG THE HIGHWAY 90
CORRIDOR TO THE COASTAL PLAINS, AND 1-3" EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL
COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO TO THE US 77 CORRIDOR.
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 4+" ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SEE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN. SOILS ARE DRY ACROSS THE REGION AND ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE WELCOMED. HOWEVER, WE ARE CONCERNED WITH RAINFALL
RATES THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. WE CONTINUE
TO HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PORTIONS
OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY, AND I-35 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPS RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. A WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY ABRUPTLY ENDS ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
LATE OCTOBER AVERAGES FOR THE MIDDLE OF WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH. AFTER A FEW DAYS OF ELEVATED MOISTURE, A RETURN OF DRY AIR
WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH MAY RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT AS WELL DEVELOPED AS WE HAD ANTICIPATED. WE
STILL EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AT ALL
TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WEST TX TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON AT AUS THEN TO DRT AND FINALLY SAT AND SSF. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 67 83 64 / 40 80 90 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 88 66 83 63 / 40 80 90 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 88 67 85 64 / 20 60 70 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 83 65 78 61 / 40 90 80 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 88 67 87 61 / 20 70 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 86 64 80 61 / 50 80 90 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 66 86 61 / 10 60 40 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 89 67 85 63 / 20 70 80 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 88 67 81 64 / 40 60 90 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 88 68 86 65 / 20 60 60 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 70 88 66 / 20 50 50 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...05
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