370
FXUS64 KEWX 241738
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1238 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LEVEL 2 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS,
THROUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL
COUNTRY, AND I-35 CORRIDOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE WITH ISOLATED POCKETS UP TO 5
INCHES COULD LEAD TO LIFE-THREATNING FLASH FLOODING.
- WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN MUCH COOLER,
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS, AN
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.7-2.0 INCHES POOLING
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED WEAK PACIFIC
COLD FRONT. THESE VALUES ARE AROUND THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. A MODERATE LOWER LEVEL FLOW AND HEATING IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS MIDDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-37 AND I-35
CORRIDORS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION THIS EVENING TURNS OUT WEST. HEIGHT FALLS AND LEAD
SHORTWAVE WILL ASSIST IN UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG BEND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION IS
FORECAST BY MOST CAMS TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINE OF STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY BETWEEN 7PM-11PM,
MOVING EAST AND REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR 11PM TO 3AM. EVENTUALLY
THE LINE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN
1AM AND 5AM SATURDAY. ACTUAL ARRIVAL TIME COULD BE SLIGHTLY EARLY IF
MORE ROBUST COLD POOLING OCCURS BEHIND THE LINE. MODERATE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SHEAR, AND INSTABILITY INDICATES A POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN'T BE RULE OUT. THERE IS CURRENTLY A
LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE MAJORITY OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
MOST GUIDANCE AGREES THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN CONVECTION AFTER
TONIGHT'S LINE OF STORMS WORKS OVER THE ATMOSPHERE AND STABILIZE
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, SOME CAMS ARE INDICATING DE-STABILIIZATION
OCCURRING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN HILL COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO, AND
COASTAL PLAINS AS PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURRING AND THE LAST FORCING IN
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH STEEP, ELEVATED
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE WIND SHEAR STILL IN PLACE THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS LATE
AFTERNOON, WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. THIS WILL BE A
CONDITIONAL THREAT ON DE-STABILIZATION ACTUALLY OCCURRING. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH
OF SAN ANTONIO, AND COASTAL PLAINS
HREF LPMM IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING, WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS UP TO 5 INCHES. WHILE TRAINING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND
DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST, THE RAINFALL RATES WILL BECOME THE
ISSUE, WITH MOST OF THIS RAINFALL OCCURRING QUICKLY WITH THE LINE
OF STORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING ISSUES OF STREAMS AND CREEKS, AS WELL AS LOW WATER
CROSSINGS, ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU,
AS WELL AS A THREAT FOR URBAN FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR. WPC HAS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4 RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING FOR THESE AREAS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. WE HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS REGION FROM 7PM
TONIGHT THROUGH 1 PM SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPS RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. A
WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ABRUPTLY ENDS ON TUESDAY WITH
THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD ADVECTION
BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PRIMARILY PREVAIL FROM THIS AFTERNOON DURING
THE EARLY EVENING WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, INCLUDING THE KDRT, IS AN EXCEPTION
THROUGH THE INITIAL HOUR OR TWO WHERE LINGERING LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE. MAIN CONCERN FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AT
THE I-35 TERMINALS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY, INCLUDING STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.
ADDITIONALLY, FLIGHT IMPACTS AT LEAST DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS AND LOWERED CEILINGS. RAIN AND STORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD RE-DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WE'LL DETERMINE POSSIBLE FLIGHT IMPACTS WITH
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 66 82 64 85 / 90 60 40 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 66 83 63 84 / 90 60 40 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 67 85 63 87 / 90 50 30 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 78 61 82 / 90 70 20 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 88 61 89 / 80 20 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 64 78 61 83 / 90 70 30 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 85 61 88 / 90 20 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 66 85 62 87 / 90 50 40 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 67 83 64 84 / 80 80 60 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 85 65 87 / 90 40 20 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 88 66 89 / 90 30 20 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ171>173-183>194-202>208.
SHORT TERM...76
LONG TERM....76
AVIATION...62
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