269
FXUS64 KEWX 251105
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
605 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN MUCH COOLER,
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
AS ADVERTISED, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMED EARLIER
AND HAS MOVED OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY, AND I-35
CORRIDOR. THERE IS ALSO A CLUSTER OVER THE DEL RIO AREA INTO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE EAST AND
EXIT TO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND EAST OF US 77 IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WHILE THE CLUSTER MOVES EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, AS
WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THAT MAY CAUSE FLASH, SMALL
STREAM, AND URBAN FLOODING. WILL MAINTAIN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION TIME OF 3 AM CDT.
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW CONTINUE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE ACTIVITY THEN MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS REDEVELOPMENT IS DUE TO DESTABILIZATION BY
HEATING AND FORCING BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, A STRONG JET STREAK,
MID LEVEL IMPULSE, AND A PACIFIC FRONT. FAVORED AREAS ARE THE HILL
COUNTRY TO ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. MODERATELY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE AND MAY CAUSE FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS
THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN WITH THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISKS CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC AND WPC FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS, RESPECTIVELY. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH 1 PM CDT, HOWEVER IT MAY BE RECONFIGURED, EXPANDED,
OR CANCELLED DEPENDING ON LATER DEVELOPMENT.
FAIR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS NEXT WEEK. A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY MID WEEK DRAGS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
AFTER TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SO FAR THIS
OCTOBER, COLD ADVECTION TAKES THEM BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH. NO RAIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, SOME MODELS AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
LIFR TO IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOCAL TERMINALS
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. AFTERWARD, VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE
FOR THE MOST PART WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AFFECTING THE
AUSTIN AREA AIRPORTS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTIONS ARE
LIKELY TO BE VARIABLE DURING PARTS OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER, A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW IS FORECAST MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS THE IMPACT OF ONGOING WETTING RAINS BEGINS TO WANE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 63 84 61 / 90 40 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 62 84 58 / 90 40 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 83 63 86 59 / 60 30 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 76 60 80 59 / 90 30 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 87 62 89 61 / 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 78 60 81 59 / 90 40 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 83 61 87 59 / 40 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 83 62 85 59 / 70 40 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 81 63 82 59 / 90 60 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 83 65 86 62 / 60 20 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 86 66 88 63 / 40 20 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ171>173-183>194-
202>208.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...17
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