101
FXUS64 KEWX 251748
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1248 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND
COASTAL PLAINS.
- WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN MUCH COOLER,
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
THE LAST OF THE FORCING IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
APPROACHING THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR MIDDAY AS WELL AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED, TO
POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST IN
THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
COASTAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. SHEAR AND ELEVATED LAPSE RATES ARE
STILL SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS, WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION, A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH INDIVIDUAL STORMS. OUT OF CAUTION WE EXTENDED THE
FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HILL COUNTRY, I-35
CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH 9 PM. THERE MAY BE A
POTENTIAL TO DROP COUNTIES SOONER.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SEASONAL
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS NEXT WEEK. A DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS TO LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID WEEK DRAGS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT, UNSEASONABLY WARM
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ARE FORECAST MONDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S WILL BE COMMON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MORNINGS, WITH POTENTIALLY EVEN A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE ONLY
FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT THINKING BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS THAT KAUS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBS THIS AFTERNOON. AT
THE MOMENT VCSHS ARE PREVAILING AS SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO POP
UP. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS NEEDED. HOWEVER
KEPT PREVIOUS TEMPOS FROM 20/24Z FOR -TSRAS. EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN
CIGS UNDER ANY STORMS THAT DO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. FOR KSAT AND
KSSF CHANCES AREN'T AS HIGH SO ADDED PROB30S FROM 21/24Z THIS
AFTERNOON AS THESE SITES ARE LIKELY TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY PASSES
AROUND 00Z WINDS SHOULD BECOME VRB AND LIGHT BEFORE EVENTUALLY
BECOMING NORTHERLY. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT (04Z) LIFTING TO VFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING
(09Z) AS THE EXPENSIVE CLOUD DECK FROM THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES PUSHING
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. FOR KDRT EXPECT VRB CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD BECOMING NORTHERLY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 62 83 60 87 / 40 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 62 82 58 86 / 40 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 61 84 59 87 / 30 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 60 79 59 84 / 30 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 61 87 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 60 80 57 85 / 50 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 59 85 59 87 / 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 61 84 57 88 / 40 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 62 82 58 85 / 70 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 63 84 62 87 / 20 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 65 86 62 89 / 20 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ171>173-191>194-
204>209.
SHORT TERM...76
LONG TERM....76
AVIATION...CJM
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