317
FXUS64 KEWX 271044
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
544 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG, SOME DENSE, EARLY THIS MORNING AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
- WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN MUCH COOLER, BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON EAST OF I-35.
- POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
SHALLOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME OF THE FOG BEING
DENSE. HREF PROBABILITIES OF DENSE FOG ARE MOSTLY 20-40% GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH SOME SPOTS OF 40-70%. WILL
MONITOR FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
THE SHALLOW FOG MIXES OUT MID MORNING ALLOWING AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO BRING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
COMPARED TO THE REMAINDER OF OCTOBER, TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS WHILE TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON TUESDAY. ITS PASSAGE WILL BE INTO THE RIO GRANDE, EDWARDS
PLATEAU, AND HILL COUNTRY LATE MORNING, ACROSS I-35 CORRIDOR MIDDAY,
THEN EXITS THE COASTAL PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. AN ABRUPT END TO OUR
UNSEASONABLY WARM OCTOBER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION CAUSING FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTH AND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH. A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH MIXING WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS
ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SOME SPOTS BRIEFLY REACHING WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS. FORCING AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-35
WITH ITS PASSAGE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY TO CLOSE
OUT THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WHEN EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES HOLD
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS, LOW DEWPOINTS, AND CLEAR SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED IN THE USUALLY COLDER LOW LYING AREAS IN THE
HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF SPOTS
THAT ARE USUALLY AMONG THE COLDEST TO REACH FREEZING AROUND SUNRISE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE OVER OUR AREA
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST MOISTURE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY TOO DRY
FOR RAIN, A FEW MODELS SHOW SPOTTY VERY LIGHT RAIN. SOUTHERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES NEXT
SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
ANOTHER TRICKY MORNING FORECAST. NOT AS MUCH FOG AS WE ANTICIPATED
AND CEILINGS ARE UNEVEN. LOOKS MORE LIKE CEILINGS WILL DETERMINE
FLYING CATEGORY AND NOT VISIBILITY. LOOKS LIKE AUSTIN AND SAN
ANTONIO WILL SEE IFR/LIFR UNTIL AROUND NOON. DRT WILL REMAIN VFR.
MODELS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY MORNING IN AUSTIN AND SAN
ANTONIO.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS TO 20S AND NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT,
NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS
THE IMPACT OF OUR RECENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WETTING RAINS BEGINS
TO WANE. EXPECT A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT, POSSIBLY RED FLAG WARNING
TO BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE THE SAME
THURSDAY, WINDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS WILL MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 89 68 87 52 / 0 0 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 87 67 87 52 / 0 0 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 89 66 88 52 / 0 0 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 87 66 81 49 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 65 88 53 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 87 66 84 50 / 0 0 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 64 90 51 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 89 66 88 51 / 0 0 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 87 67 87 52 / 0 0 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 88 68 88 53 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 90 69 90 56 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...05
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