164
FXUS64 KEWX 271805
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
105 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN MUCH COOLER, BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON EAST OF I-35.
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
OUR STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FINALLY SET TO COME TO
AN END. A TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
DIVE SOUTH ON TUESDAY, SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BEFORE THE FRONT MAKES IT THOUGH, WE HAVE TO
GET THROUGH 2 MORE WARM DAYS, PARTICULARLY TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH SOME LOWER 90S SPRINKLED IN FOR SOME
SPOTS OUT WEST AND SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALL BUT COMPLETELY
ERODE SHORTLY, WITH AMPLE MIXING TAKING PLACE.
FOR TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 60S ONCE AGAIN, BUT
SOME MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
COASTAL PLAINS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN, BUT LOW STRATUS LOOKS MORE LIKELY OF
THE TWO. RAPID MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
HILL COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10/US 90 WILL LIKELY
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. HAVE OPTED TO BLEND IN THE
NAM12 WITH THE NBM OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE TO BETTER ALIGN WITH
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT SHOULD SPARK OFF A COUPLE SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS, BUT ELSEWHERE, IT'S EXPECTED TO BE DRY ALONG AND
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
OF THE REGION. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS. WINDS SHOULD FINALLY START TO RELAX LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING, PRIMARILY AFTER SUNSET AS A SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY
ALONG WITH THE COOLEST MORNINGS SINCE EARLY TO MID APRIL. MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE HILL COUNTRY WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S,
BUT SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND PERHAPS A LIGHT FREEZE FOR SOME
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW, OPTED TO
BLEND IN CONSMOS WITH THE NBM25TH PERCENTILE AND OPERATIONAL NBM
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FIRST TRUE FALL AIR OF THE SEASON. HALLOWEEN
LOOKS NEARLY PERFECT FOR TRICK OR TREATERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND LOOKS INCREASINGLY
WARMER AND DRIER, WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES IN SIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
A SCT TO BKN DECK OF MVFR STRATUS FROM KSEQ AND KPEZ
NORTHWESTWARD TO KECU AND KERV WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING INTO
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH THE LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE FOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY THEN REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY, FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
MIDDAY BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM MIDDAY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND
INCREASES WINDS WITH GUSTS TO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE, THIS PERIOD WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KT OR
LESS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE HILL COUNTRY, EDWARDS PLATEAU, I-35
CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL PLAINS. CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, WITH SURFACE WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 35 MPH AT TIMES, ALONG
WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 15-25% WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
FIRES THAT DEVELOP WEDNESDAY COULD RAPIDLY INCREASE IN SIZE AND
INTENSITY, MOVE QUICKLY, AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTROL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 87 51 68 / 0 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 88 52 68 / 0 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 67 88 52 69 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 79 47 64 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 64 88 53 72 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 49 66 / 0 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 90 50 70 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 67 89 50 70 / 0 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 89 53 68 / 0 20 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 89 53 69 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 92 55 71 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ171>173-186>194-203>209-218>225-228.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...62
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