428
FXUS64 KEWX 290538
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1238 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY DUE TO
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND DRY AIR. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR ALL AREAS
WITH VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
- DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOL. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
MISSOURI BOOT HEEL/WESTERN TENNESSEE, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE INTACT. WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME MIXING, WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS ACROSS ALL AREAS BY MID-MORNING. BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL DATA, WE WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM
FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT THOSE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. NORTH WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE FORECAST TODAY. A WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WE DO EXPECT TO SEE THE WINDS DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY RIGHT AROUND SUNSET AS MIXING CEASES AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. FOR TONIGHT, THE COMBINATION
OF CLEAR SKIES, DRY AIR AND DECREASING WINDS WILL BE IDEAL FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOWER
30S TO LOWER 40S. IN THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF THE HILL COUNTRY, A
FEW SPOTS MAY GET CLOSE TO FREEZING. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY
ON THURSDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO WARM BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP LOWS
INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL TREND
UPWARD INTO THE 70S AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY RETURN TO
THE REGION. A SUBTLE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES SATURDAY
JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WE WILL KEEP ANY RAIN CHANCES
WITH THE NEXT FRONT LOW AND LIMITED TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG
AND EAST OF I-35/I-37 AS MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED. DRIER AIR
BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT WILL HELP END RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL BUT THE
HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING. WE ARE NOTING SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF IN THE
HANDLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN U.S.
PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL TEND TO DISCOUNT
THE OPERATIONAL GFS IN SHOWING A SLOWER, CUT-OFF LOW AS OPPOSED TO
THE GFS AND ECWMF ENSEMBLE MEAN BOTH FAVORING A WEAKER AND FASTER
MOVING UPPER TROUGH. WE EXPECT TO SEE DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER ECMWF NUMBERS FAVORED FOR
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
THE MAIN FLYING ISSUE TODAY WILL BE STRONG, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS IN THE
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AREAS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE TO 10 KTS OR LESS BY AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AT DRT WITH LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
PICKING UP TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS BY LATE MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM CDT UNTIL 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY ALONG INTERSTATE 10, ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 57, AND FOR THE
COASTAL PLAINS FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DOWN TO
NEAR 15 TO NEAR 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND DRY FUELS WILL LEAD TO NEAR
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE AREA UNDER THE RED
FLAG WARNING IS UNDER DRY TO NORMAL MOISTURE. THE AREA UNDER THE
FIRE WEATHER STATEMENT IS UNDER ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE BASED ON FUEL
DRYNESS FORECAST. DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AGAIN ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MUCH
LOWER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 45 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 39 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 69 38 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 64 39 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 44 75 47 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 40 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 36 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 40 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 67 44 71 42 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 40 72 44 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 42 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ171>173-184>194-
203>209-218>225-228.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ187-189-203>207-218>225-228.
SHORT TERM...PLATT
LONG TERM....PLATT
AVIATION...05
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