003
FXUS64 KEWX 292259
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
559 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM
TONIGHT.
- COOLEST TEMPERATURES SINCE THIS SPRING ON TAP FOR TONIGHT WITH
SOME AREAS APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
- DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
REDUCING THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA. AS A RESULT
WE COULD SEE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA
AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND OUR TYPICAL VALLEYS.
AS LONG AS WINDS DROP WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REALIZE TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 40S ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND MID TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IF WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED WE WOULD NOT
REACH THESE TEMPERATURES EVEN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. BOTTOM
LINE IS THIS, IF WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED TEMPS WONT DROP AS LOW AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER, IF WINDS DIE DOWN THEN WE COULD SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES APPROACH FREEZING ACROSS OUR VALLEYS AND THE HILL
COUNTRY. REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT THIS WILL LIKELY BE
THE COLDEST NIGHT SINCE EARLY APRIL. REMEMBER TO DRESS
APPROPRIATELY, BRING YOUR PETS INSIDE AND PRACTICE SAFE SPACE
HEATER SAFETY. TEMPERATURES DON'T REBOUND MUCH FOR THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS REMAINING IN THE LOW 70S. HOWEVER, THE BIG DIFFERENCE FOLKS
WITH LIKELY NOTICE IS THE LACK OF WIND COMPARED TO TODAY. IT WILL
BE MUCH LESS WINDY FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES
OVER TX. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH MANY AREAS IN FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S HOWEVER IT SHOULDN'T BE AS COLD AS TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
FOR THE LONG TERM, HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THEN THURSDAY AS WE SEE THE RETURN OF SOUTHEAST FLOW HELPING TO
BOOST TEMPS AND BRING IN INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY. SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A COLD
FRONT SWINGING THROUGH OUR AREA SATURDAY EVENING. WE COULD WRING
OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-10/I-37 CORRIDOR PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE WE DRY BACK
OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. HIGHS BY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
A DEGREE WARMER EACH DAY WITH 80S LIKELY BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
REMAIN NORTHERLY OVER I-35 TERMINALS TOMORROW WHILE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE, INCLUDING KDRT, WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER 15Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM UNTIL 7 PM TONIGHT
ALONG INTERSTATE 10, ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 57, AND FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THAT WE SAW EARLIER SHOULD START TO DIE
DOWN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. CURRENT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ANYWHERE FROM 15 TO NEAR 25 PERCENT SO FAR. THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND DRY FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE AREA UNDER THE RED FLAG WARNING IS UNDER DRY TO
NORMAL MOISTURE WHEREAS THE AREA UNDER THE FIRE WEATHER STATEMENT
IS UNDER ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE BASED ON FUEL DRYNESS FORECAST. DRY
AIR REMAINING IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THUS REDUCING
THE FIRE WEATHER RISK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 45 72 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 38 71 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 42 72 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 41 69 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 43 75 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 40 69 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 38 72 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 41 72 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 42 70 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 43 72 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 45 74 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ171>173-184>194-
203>209-218>225-228.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ187-189-
203>207-218>225-228.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...27
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