218
FXUS64 KEWX 061506
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
906 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG THIS MORNING, GREATEST FOCUS TO THE EAST OF I-35.
- HOT, NEAR RECORD DAILY OR MONTHLY HIGHS, POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING
WINDY CONDITIONS, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND NEAR- CRITICAL
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 903 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...
THE DENSE FOG THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING HAS
MOSTLY DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND VISIBILITIES
HAVE IMPROVED THUS WE ARE ALLOWING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN INTO MID-
MORNING WITH THE HREF/REFS PROBABILITIES AROUND 50-80% CHANCE OF
SEEING VISIBILITIES AT OR LESS THAN 1/2 OF A MILE FOR LOCATIONS TO
THE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS IS WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 3 TO 9 AM. WE WILL MONITOR SURFACE CONDITIONS
AND WEBCAMS FOR ANY POSSIBLE NEED FOR A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE
ADVISORY ACROSS I-35 WHERE PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER IN THE 10-40%
RANGE FOR VISIBILITY AT OR LESS THAN 1/2 OF A MILE. FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AND YIELD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A WEAKER SIGNAL EXISTS FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS INTO FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME THAT CONCENTRATES SOUTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM SAN ANTONIO EASTWARD. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN
STORY ON FRIDAY WILL BE THE HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, WHICH MAY
NOT ONLY THREATEN DAILY RECORD HIGHS BUT THE MONTHLY ALL TIME
RECORDS AS WELL. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ENTERING THE HILL COUNTRY ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD HELP CONTRIBUTE AND PUSH THE TEMPERATURES TO
THOSE RECORDS THROUGH COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY. WINDS BRIEFLY COULD TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION FROM LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
AN AMPLIFYING AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL ADVANCE A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. OFTEN THE CASE WITH THESE FRONTS, MODELS ARE SHOWING A
QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME AND THE ADVECTION OF SOME STRONGER COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FRONT SHOULD
REMAIN RAIN FREE BUT IS TO BRING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH STRONG
POST-FRONTAL DRY NORTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY COULD PEAK INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE. THIS
COMBINES WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS FALLING BELOW 20% THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALMOST THE CERTAINTY FOR NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WIND AND FIRE WEATHER
PRODUCTS COULD BE CONSIDERED AS THIS EVENT APPROACHES. DESPITE THE
COLDEST AIR WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM FOCUSING IN THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN US, EXPECT FOR ENOUGH COLD AIR TO SPILL ACROSS OUR
REGION TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO DIP DOWN INTO THE 50S AND 60S. MONDAY
LOOKS TO TREND AS THE COOLEST DAY AS A SECONDARY AND REINFORCING
FRONT ARRIVES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND LOW
40S. MONDAY WILL BE MORE ADVECTIVELY DRIVEN WITH THE LINGERING
NORTHERLY WINDS WHILE TUESDAY WOULD LIKELY BE THE MORE EFFECTIVE
NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION. NONETHELESS, BOTH NIGHTS OFFER THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A
LIGHT FREEZE WITHIN PROTECTED VALLEYS AND/OR RURAL AREAS. HAVE
ELECTED TO EXPLICITLY FORECAST A LIGHT FREEZE AT KAUS NOW FOR
TUESDAY MORNING.
THE COOLER AIRMASS LOOKS TO REMAIN SHORT LIVED AS A QUICK WARMUP
RETURNS BY MID TO LATE WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND THE BUILDING OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT FOR
HIGHS TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WARM INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
VERY FEW CHANGES COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOG HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS BUT DENSE FOG LOOKS TO AVOID THE
I-35 SITES. NEVERTHELESS, EXPECT SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT
AUS, SAT, AND SSF THROUGH 15-16Z BEFORE SKIES BREAK AND VFR
CEILINGS RETURN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
RECORD | FRIDAY | SATURDAY |
(11/07) (11/08)
AUS |89 2024 | 90 1989 |
ATT |89 1988 | 89 2024 |
SAT |88 2005 | 90 1989 |
DRT |92 1988 | 93 1980 |
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 85 61 90 59 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 85 59 89 56 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 84 58 89 57 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 83 59 87 55 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 87 57 91 56 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 85 60 89 55 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 55 89 55 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 85 58 90 56 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 85 60 89 60 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 84 60 88 59 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 85 60 90 60 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...MMM
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