924
FXUS64 KEWX 062336
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
536 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT WITH NEAR RECORD DAILY HIGHS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER DANGER ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WE COULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ONCE AGAIN
WITH GRAND ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING A 30 TO 65% CHANCE MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR SIMILAR AREAS TO WHAT WE SAW THIS
MORNING. WE THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO HIGHS AS THEY SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN SURGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A TROUGH
PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH BY FRIDAY GIVING US A SLIGHT BOOST WITH
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING OVER THE AREA. THIS
BOOST ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING THERMAL RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TX SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO EVEN THE LOW 90S FOR MOST. IN FACT, FRIDAY WE COULD BE LOOKING
AT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
WITH SIMILAR LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
A SIMILAR SETUP COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AS WELL
BUT THATS DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF OUR NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT.
BOTH THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE EURO STILL HAVE
SOME DISCREPANCIES ON WHEN AND HOW DEEP THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES IN
THE EAST AND DIGS DOWN. THE EURO KEEPS THE TROUGH DIGGING WAY DOWN
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY WHILE THE GFS IS PERSISTENT WITH A
SOMEWHAT WEAKER TROUGH ONLY MAKING IT TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
THE NORTHEAST. BOTH MODELS HOWEVER ARE COMING TOGETHER IN
AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS IS MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CONUS WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. DEPENDING ON WHICH GLOBAL MODEL FLAVOR
YOU LIKE COULD DETERMINE JUST HOW STRONG THIS FRONT AND THE WINDS
BEHIND IT BECOME. THE EURO SOLUTION INCREASES OUR CHANCES FOR
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH MUCH
FARTHER NORTH KEEPING THE STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF TO OUR EAST.
REGARDLESS, THIS LEAVES US IN A PERIOD OF TRANSITIONAL FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO AND ALLOWS FOR A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT TO COME
DOWN INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT SIMILAR TO THE ONE LAST WEEK IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH DRY
LEADING TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
(SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW). WINDS LOOK TO REALLY RAMP UP
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS LEAVES US IN A VERY FAVORABLE
PRESSURE GRADIENT PATTERN WITH STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS LOOKING
LIKELY FOR SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COOLER BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS
STRUGGLING TO BREAK 70 SUNDAY WITH MANY REMAINING IN THE LOW 60S
FOR MONDAY. LASTLY, SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
COASTAL PLAINS COULD SEE LOWS IN THE MID 30S BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS BEHIND THIS FRONT. MONDAY WILL BE MORE COLD
ADVECTION DRIVEN WITH THE LINGERING NORTHERLY WINDS WHILE TUESDAY
WOULD LIKELY BE THE MORE EFFECTIVE NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. WHILE A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE DOESN'T LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME IT WOULD STILL BE PRUDENT
TO COVER ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS AND BRING YOUR FURRY FRIENDS
INSIDE. THESE COLD TEMPS DON'T LOOK TO LAST LONG HOWEVER AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF TO OUR WEST AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION PUSHING TEMPS BACK INTO
THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUES FOR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHEST HREF PROBABILITIES REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE I-35 SITES AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE TEMPOS FOR 1-3SM BR SCT003
AT THOSE SITES. LATER FORECASTS WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY
UPDATES FOR PREVAILING VLIFR/LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. S TO SE WINDS
DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WITH
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A TROUGH, WINDS CHANGE DIRECTION. AT THE
I-35 SITES, WINDS TURN SW AT 5 TO 12 KTS LATE MORNING, THEN N AT
5 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT. AT KDRT, WINDS TURN NW AT 5 TO 10 KTS MID
MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
DRY WEATHER WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. RH MINIMUMS COULD FALL TO NEAR 15 TO 25 PERCENT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 90, LEADING TO LOCALLY ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A DRY COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHERLY POST-FRONTAL
WINDS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS INTO THE TEENS AND 20S SUGGEST
THAT NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NEARING A
CERTAINTY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE FOR FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS TO BE ISSUED AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. THE DRY AND
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUES DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WIND SPEEDS
SUBSIDE TO LOWER VALUES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY THUS REDUCING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
RECORD | FRIDAY | SATURDAY |
(11/07) (11/08)
AUS |89 2024 | 90 1989 |
ATT |89 1988 | 89 2024 |
SAT |88 2005 | 90 1989 |
DRT |92 1988 | 93 1980 |
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 61 89 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 60 89 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 59 89 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 59 87 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 56 92 56 90 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 60 90 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 55 89 55 90 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 58 90 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 60 89 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 60 88 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 60 89 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...04
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