540
FXUS64 KEWX 080602
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1202 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR COASTAL PLAINS
- VERY WARM TODAY, THOUGH JUST SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS
- STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT BRINGS BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS,
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS
- LIGHT FREEZES POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY, AND LOW LYING SPOTS ALONG THE
I-35 AND US 90 ESCARPMENT
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
A WEAK "COLD" FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL
CONFINE THE SHALLOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING. PATCHY DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THAT AREA. ONLY SLIGHT "COLD" ADVECTION IS NOTED BEHIND THE
FRONT KEEPING HIGHS TODAY A LITTLE "COOLER" THAN THE RECORD BREAKING
DAILY AND MONTHLY VALUES OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THEY WILL STILL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE.
AN ABRUPT CHANGE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH, A
DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED IMMEDIATELY WITH ITS PASSAGE,
LOWS REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON SUNDAY KEEPS
HIGHS BELOW AVERAGE. AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS SOUTH
OVER THE PLAINS STATES, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING WITH
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT RESULTS IN BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHERLY FLOW WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40+ MPH. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS WITH THE I-35 CORRIDOR THE
MOST FAVORED AREA DUE THE FUNNELING EFFECT ALONG IT. A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS FILTERS INTO OUR AREA RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN EVEN COLDER, WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES GOING INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PATCHY
FREEZES ARE EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS WITH THE
FAVORED AREAS BEING PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY,
AND LOW LYING SPOTS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT OF I-35 AND US 90. FREEZE
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA, WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE HOLD AND BRING A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND
FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH A
PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING LOW CLOUDS MIXING TO AFTERNOON SUN
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED WELL EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR, NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF A K3T5-K2R9 LINE, PRODUCING IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL ADVECT MUCH OF THIS CLOSER TO
THE COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES FOR MOST OF THE REGION, INCLUDING THE I-35 CORRIDOR. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
RIO GRANDE, GUSTS 20-30KT ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION 06Z-
12Z SUNDAY, INCREASING TO 25-35KT 12Z-18Z SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS BELOW 10 MPH WILL MITIGATE ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS CHANGES ON SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40+ MPH AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THESE VALUES COMBINED WITH HIGH TO
EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND DRY, MOSTLY DROUGHT CURED FUELS CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING LATER TODAY FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.
LITTLE CHANGE IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH,
WINDS WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, THEY WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES ON TUESDAY,
HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SLOWER KEEPING MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S. AS A RESULT, NEAR CRITICAL TO POSSIBLY
PATCHY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 87 56 67 38 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 87 55 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 88 56 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 84 52 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 88 58 73 43 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 86 54 66 35 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 57 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 89 56 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 87 56 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 88 58 71 41 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 89 60 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...76
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