641
FXUS64 KEWX 082343
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
543 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM TODAY, THOUGH JUST SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS
- STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT BRINGS BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS,
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS
- LIGHT FREEZES POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY, AND LOW LYING SPOTS ALONG THE
I-35 AND US 90 ESCARPMENT
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
COLD FRONT IS STILL UP IN NW TX, BUT THE POLAR JET WILL BE DIVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THAT WILL PUSH THE FRONT
QUICKLY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX LATE TONIGHT. AS WITH MOST NOVEMBER
COLD FRONTS, THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS IS MOSTLY A WELL MIXED LAYER
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DROPPING AND BEING OFFSET BY DAYTIME
HEATING. GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT A FEW WINDS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT MIGHT
GUST TO 40 MPH BEFORE DAYBREAK. WE OPTED TO START THE WIND
ADVISORY AT 3 AM, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 25
MPH ARE EXPECTED ONCE THE SUN COMES UP AND DAYTIME MIXING ENSUES.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK, AND THE GUSTINESS
OF WINDS COULD LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE WINDS DON'T
FULLY DECOUPLE SUNDAY NIGHT SO WE FEEL PRETTY GOOD ABOVE MOST OF
THE I-35 AREAS TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
WE COULD SEE PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS NORTH OF AUSTIN
WITH A NEED FOR A FREEZE WARNING TO ANNOUNCE THE FIRST FREEZE OF
THE COOL SEASON.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
MONDAY WILL SEE SOME MODERATE AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL PRAIRIES, BUT WINDS SHOULD TREND LIGHTER LATE IN THE
DAY AND BE WELL DECOUPLED FOR ANOTHER POTENTIAL FREEZE NIGHT, BUT
THIS TIME MAINLY EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT AND POTENTIALLY AROUND
HONDO. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE HILL COUNTRY SHOULD SEE THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALREADY RETURNING AS SURFACE TROUGHING AMPLIFIES
INTO NW TX.
A RELATIVELY BREEZY PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS RESUMES MID-WEEK
INTO SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE DOMINATED BUT PROGRESSIVE POLAR FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT. THIS RETURNS THE WARMING TREND QUICKLY WITH A QUICK
JUMP BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. GULF MOISTURE
LEVELS IMPROVE GRADUALLY LATE NEXT WEEK, AND BY NEXT SATURDAY,
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES COULD TAKE SHAPE AS UPPER TROUGHING
APPROACHES WEST TX.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH ONLY FEW080 LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY POSSIBLE. VRBL WINDS OF
LESS THAN 5 KTS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES,
THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KTS WITH ITS
PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35
KTS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY MAINLY AT THE I-35 SITES. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH REMAIN ELEVATED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
RED FLAG WARNING UPGRADE WAS SENT FOR SUNDAY. WEATHER TRENDS
CONTINUE TO LOOK ON TRACK FOR NEAR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 9 AM AND 9 PM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY, SO MONDAY'S RESIDUAL 10-15 MPH NORTH WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL PRAIRIES COULD BE ELEVATED FOR FEW HOURS. ON TUESDAY,
SOUTH WINDS RETURN WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY. ANY TREND CHANGES ON THESE TWO
DAYS COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS OF POSSIBLY
RED FLAG WARNINGS. HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER BY WEDNESDAY WHILE
WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 57 68 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 56 68 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 57 70 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 52 63 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 58 73 43 67 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 54 66 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 58 71 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 57 70 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 57 70 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 59 70 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 61 72 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ171>173-
183>194-202>209-217>225-228.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ173-191>194-
204>208-219>221.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...04
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page