303
FXUS64 KEWX 091122
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
522 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES, AND NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
- LIGHT FREEZES AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY ON MONDAY, THEN LOW LYING SPOTS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-35 AND US 90 CORRIDORS ON TUESDAY
- WARM AGAIN MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
THE MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
HILL COUNTRY. IT WILL PLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT CHANGE FROM
THE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HEAT OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION TAKES HOLD A FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TODAY. THEN, THE BOTTOM DROPS
OUT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. PATCHY
FREEZES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY AT SUNRISE ON MONDAY. A FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF THE
FREEZE POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SPILLS SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS STATES, A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND MIXING WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT RESULTS IN BREEZY TO
WINDY NORTHERLY FLOW WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS
UP TO 40+ MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND DUE THE FUNNELING EFFECT THERE.
THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS, WIND SPEEDS DECREASE ON MONDAY. A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO OUR AREA RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR THE
DETAILS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER OUR AREA LATE MONDAY, THEN BEGINS
TO SHIFT TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS, LOW DEWPOINTS, AND CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. PATCHY FREEZES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS LOW LYING SPOTS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-35 AND US 90
CORRIDORS AT SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. A FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THOSE AREAS. LOWS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
WILL BE WARMER DUE TO THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH WINDS
BECOME LIGHT MOST AREAS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN, WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S IN SPOTS ARE EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING
A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE HOLD AND BRING A WARMING AND MOISTENING
TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN. THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND PACIFIC FRONT BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
HIGH CIRRUS ARE DEVELOPING AND WILL SHIFT EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
NNW TO NNE WINDS SUSTAINED 10-20KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
EARLY THIS MORNING, INCREASING 12Z-16Z TO 20-25KT WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30KT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL
PLAINS. AFTER 00Z WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 5-10KT ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE AND TO 10-15KT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY, I-35
CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40+ MPH AND
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S COMBINED WITH HIGH TO
EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND DRY DROUGHT CURED FUELS CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FOR TODAY. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER, THEY WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH INTO THE AFTERNOON AT TIME OF
LOWEST HUMIDITY FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES ON TUESDAY, HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
SLOWER KEEPING MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S. NEAR
CRITICAL TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE POTENTIALS FOR FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS OR RED
FLAG WARNINGS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 35 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 35 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 36 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 64 32 58 39 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 43 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 34 59 36 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 37 65 33 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 35 63 30 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 36 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 37 63 39 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 39 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ173-191>194-
204>208-219>221.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...76
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