269
FXUS64 KEWX 100006
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
606 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDITIONS AND NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
- LIGHT FREEZES EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY ON MONDAY, THEN LOW LYING SPOTS
NEAR THE ESCARPMENT, I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PRAIRIES TUESDAY
- WARM AGAIN MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL PRAIRIES MONDAY,
AND ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MOST
OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL TX TUESDAY
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
LOW END WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AS OF THE LATE
MORNING AND MIDDAY. UPSTREAM WINDS IN CENTRAL TX MIGHT SUGGEST THE
STRONGER WINDS TO SHIFT FOCUS SOUTHWARD AND RELAX A BIT, LEADING
TO A POSSIBLE EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE WIND ADVISORY IN A FEW
HOURS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE
RED FLAG WARNING. THE NEXT FOCUS IS FOR TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES
AND THE WIND INDICATIONS OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR WOULD SUGGEST NOT
ENOUGH DECOUPLING TO ALLOW FOR THE FIRST FREEZE IN THOSE AREAS.
THE FIRST FREEZE AND FREEZE WARNING PRODUCT WENT OUT FOR THE HILL
COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE BETTER DECOUPLING OF WIND AND
LOWER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY. DAYTIME MONDAY COULD
START OFF A LITTLE BREEZY OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES BUT THE MOS
GUIDANCE SURFACE WINDS SHOW DECREASES ALREADY BY 18Z. THOSE
WAKING UP EARLY WILL EXPERIENCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, BUT WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS AND THE MAX TEMPERATURE
RECOVERING TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
WHILE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ALL BUT DONE BY MONDAY EVENING,
THE COOL STARTING TEMPERATURES, LIGHT WINDS, LOW DEW POINTS, AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
FOR THE CENTRAL, EASTERN, AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING IS EXPECTED TO GO OUT FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS, BUT
WILL NOT BE CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO TAKE THE
PRODUCT IN THIS PACKAGE. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS OVER
NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL POSSIBLY CURB THE COOLING EARLY WITH
HIGHER TERRAIN WINDS MIXING THE AIR LEAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THAT
WOULD OCCUR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PICK UP AS BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING DEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
INTO NW TX. THE STILL VERY LOW DEW POINTS WILL AID IN A RAPID
DAYTIME WARM-UP BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL MAXES AND POTENTIALLY SOME
MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THAT COULD WARRANT A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT. DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER MORE AGGRESSIVELY
FROM THE SE COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT NOT UNTIL THE EVENING
OVER NW COUNTIES. MIN TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL JUMP 10 TO
20 DEGREES OVER THOSE FROM TUESDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER POLAR
TROUGH BRINGS THE NEXT WEATHER CHANGE. YESTERDAY'S SOLUTIONS
SUGGESTED THIS WOULD HAVE BEEN A FAVORABLE ONE WITH A WEAKER
TROUGH AND SOME RAIN CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. TODAY'S
CONSENSUS DEPICT A STRONGER AND FASTER SYSTEM, WHICH MIGHT LEAD TO
LESS RAIN AND MORE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
THE ONLY AVIATION ISSUE THIS EVENING IS THE WIND. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COMING PERIOD IN THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO
AREAS. WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS EVENTUALLY DROPPING TO 10-15 KTS BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS MONDAY.
AT DRT WINDS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW 10 KTS AND WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. BY MID-MORNING MONDAY THEY WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE DECREASING DURING
THE DAY. MORNING TO MIDDAY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES WILL
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATED TO
POTENTIALLY NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TUESDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS PICKING UP QUICKLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. MOISTURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN IN THE DAYTIME, SO MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S COULD LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL TO POSSIBLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SOME AREAS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THUS THERE ARE POTENTIALS FOR FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS OR
RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL ACCOMPANY BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ANOTHER FRONT AND
POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 39 62 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 34 61 32 73 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 37 62 34 72 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 36 58 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 42 67 40 74 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 33 59 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 37 65 33 72 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 34 62 32 74 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 37 60 34 73 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 39 63 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 41 64 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ171>173-
183>194-202>209-217>225-228.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
TXZ171>173-184>190.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ173-191>194-
204>209-219>225.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...05
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