436
FXUS64 KEWX 101122
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
522 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT FREEZES EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY ON MONDAY, THEN LOW LYING SPOTS
NEAR THE ESCARPMENT, I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PRAIRIES TUESDAY
- WARM AGAIN MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL PRAIRIES MONDAY,
AND ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MOST
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX TUESDAY
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
FOR TODAY EXPECT A MUCH COOLER DAY AS TEMPS ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS. WE WILL START THE DAY CLOSE TO
FREEZING FOR MANY AREAS IN THE HILL COUNTRY WHERE A FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM. THOSE WAKING UP EARLY COULD
EXPERIENCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IT WILL
CERTAINLY FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAY DUE TO THE
CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
SUNDAY.
WE COULD SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE TUESDAY
MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD COMMENCE WITH WINDS DECOUPLING
AFTER SUNSET WITH CLEAR SKIES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS A FREEZE
WARNING FOR THESE AREAS. WIND CHILLS WON'T BE AS COLD AS THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT. FOR THE AREAS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU, EXPECT LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS SHOULD STAY A BIT MORE ELEVATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT, THUS NOT ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP AS MUCH. HIGHS TUESDAY
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE 70S AS THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE
LONG GONE AND OUT OF AREA. THE RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING TO OUR WEST AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP
PROMOTE AND INCREASE OUR FIRE DANGER AS WELL (SEE FIRE SECTION
BELOW). SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN LEADING TO
ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MAKE IT OVER OUR AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
FOR TODAY EXPECT A MUCH COOLER DAY AS TEMPS ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS. WE WILL START THE DAY CLOSE TO
FREEZING FOR MANY AREAS IN THE HILL COUNTRY WHERE A FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM. THOSE WAKING UP EARLY COULD
EXPERIENCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IT WILL
CERTAINLY FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAY DUE TO THE
CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
SUNDAY.
WE COULD SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE TUESDAY
MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD COMMENCE WITH WINDS DECOUPLING
AFTER SUNSET WITH CLEAR SKIES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS A FREEZE
WARNING FOR THESE AREAS. WIND CHILLS WON'T BE AS COLD AS THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT. FOR THE AREAS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU, EXPECT LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS SHOULD STAY A BIT MORE ELEVATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT, THUS NOT ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP AS MUCH. HIGHS TUESDAY
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE 70S AS THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE
LONG GONE AND OUT OF AREA. THE RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING TO OUR WEST AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP
PROMOTE AND INCREASE OUR FIRE DANGER AS WELL (SEE FIRE SECTION
BELOW). SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN LEADING TO
ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MAKE IT OVER OUR AREA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST LOW TEMPS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE 10 TO 20 DEGREES OVER THOSE FROM TUESDAY
MORNING, AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUNNEL IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALL BUT ENSURING WARMER LOWS. THE WARMING
TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MANY AREAS SEEING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN BEFORE ANOTHER POLAR TROUGH
BRINGS THE NEXT WEATHER CHANGE. SEVERAL LONG TERM GLOBAL MODELS
AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE HINTING AT THIS POSSIBILITY OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRYING TO SWING THROUGH OUR AREA. IT REMAINS TO
BE SEEN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS TROUGH DIGS AND WHAT IMPACTS WE
MAY SEE LOCALLY HERE. AT THE MOMENT HAVE LOW CHANCES (20-405%) ON
RAIN SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY AS ITS STILL A WAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN AND LIKELY WILL CHANGE BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE ZONAL PATTERN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER CLEAR SKIES. N TO NE
WINDS AROUND 10 KT ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TODAY.
WINDS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE HAVE
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 5 KT OR LESS, AND A SE AROUND 5-10 KT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY,
WINDS WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER, THEY COULD REMAIN
HIGH ENOUGH INTO THE AFTERNOON DURING THE TIME OF LOWEST HUMIDITY
THUS CREATING POSSIBLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR TO NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES ON
TUESDAY, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SLOWER KEEPING MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S. NEAR CRITICAL TO POSSIBLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS OR RED FLAG WARNINGS BEING
NEEDED ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 62 39 73 55 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 61 34 73 52 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 62 36 73 52 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 58 39 70 52 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 67 42 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 59 35 72 53 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 64 36 73 47 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 62 33 73 52 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 59 36 74 55 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 63 39 72 52 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 64 40 74 53 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ171>173-
184>190.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...76
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page