533
FXUS64 KEWX 110012
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
612 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT FREEZES COULD BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN LOW-
LYING VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS NEAR THE ESCARPMENT, I-35
CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL PRAIRIES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MAJORITY OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY; ELEVATED WITHIN DEWITT, KARNES, AND
LAVACA COUNTIES
- WARMING TREND AHEAD OF A WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM THAT BRINGS
MEDIUM (20-50%) RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY, PROVIDING A
COOL, CLEAR AFTERNOON WITH THE WIND SPEEDS ON THE DECREASE. THIS
SURFACE HIGH THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH WINDS
STARTING TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. LOCATIONS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
HIGH AND IN A CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A DEVELOPING WEAK SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY THE RIDGE TOPS
WITHIN THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE WARMEST IN THESE LOCATIONS. WHEREAS, PROTECTED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST/SOUTH OF THE
BALCONES ESCARPMENT WHERE WINDS BECOME THE LIGHTEST, WILL BE THE
COLDEST LOCATIONS ENTERING TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING. A LIGHT FREEZE IS LIKELY WITHIN THE COLDEST OF THESE
LOCATIONS, SUCH AS AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL (AUS). THE
FREEZE POTENTIAL IS TOO LIMITED TO WHERE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN
EACH COUNTY WILL NOT REACH FREEZING, THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON THE
ISSUANCE OF ANY FREEZE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTENSIFIES AND BEGINS TO MIX MORE
TO THE SURFACE INTO AND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THIS RESULTS IN A MILDER DAY WITH MODERATE TO BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH THE RESIDUAL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, THE
INCREASED FLOW WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
MAJORITY OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR
SOUTHEASTERN MOST COUNTIES WHERE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE TO
TREND MORE IN THE ELEVATED RANGE THAN CRITICAL AS A RESULT OF
SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS CLOSER TO THE GULF WATERS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
WARM CONDITIONS PREVAIL DURING MID TO LATE WEEK UNDER THE WEAK
RIDGING TO ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT, AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURN TO THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOUNCE BACK INTO THE 50S, EVEN THE LOW 60S FOR SOME INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND WITH THE MILDER AIR
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME RETURN OF MORNING LOW CLOUD COVER BY THE
WEEK'S END. RAIN CHANCES ARE MINIMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN
REGARDS TO THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, EXPECT FOR INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS DRAWS IN
ENOUGH WARM, MOIST AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TO RESULT IN
RETURNING LOW END (20-30%) RAIN AND STORM CHANCES BEGINNING
SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST (30-50%) RAIN CHANCES THEN LIKELY ARRIVES
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM AND IT'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
REGION. A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ARRIVES HEADING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. CONCERNS
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER COULD BE RENEWED FOLLOWING THE FRONT
PENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT FALLS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
EXPECT ANOTHER TAF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AT ALL AREA TERMINALS.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 118 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
A DRY AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW WITH MINIMUM
RH VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT. FOR TODAY, THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AS SPEEDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE
RETURNING AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SPEEDS INTO AND DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE LOW HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER ACROSS MAJORITY OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OUR SOUTHEASTERN MOST COUNTIES WHERE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE TO TREND MORE IN THE ELEVATED RANGE THAN CRITICAL
AS A RESULT OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS CLOSER TO THE GULF
WATERS. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 9 AM THROUGH 6 PM
ON TUESDAY FOR MOST. HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE RETURNING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY
FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ARRIVING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
COULD BRING SOME CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN BUT ALSO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER FRONT THAT COULD RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 60 40 72 56 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 60 32 72 52 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 63 35 73 51 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 59 37 69 52 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 67 42 73 48 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 61 35 71 53 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 34 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 61 33 73 52 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 59 35 74 55 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 64 38 72 52 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 64 38 73 52 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ171>173-
183>194-202>209-217>221-223-228.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...05
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