602
FXUS64 KEWX 111121
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
521 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT FREEZES COULD BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN LOW-LYING
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS NEAR THE ESCARPMENT, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND
COASTAL PRAIRIES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TUESDAY
- WARMING TREND AHEAD OF A WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM THAT BRINGS LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-40%) RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
THIS MORNING WILL START OFF QUITE CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MANY
LOCATIONS WAKING UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WE ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE
A FREEZE WARNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO START INCREASING TOWARDS
SUNRISE THUS LIMITING JUST HOW COLD TEMPERATURES COULD GET. HOWEVER,
SOME LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH FREEZING BUT FELT THE FREEZE POTENTIAL
IS TOO LIMITED TO WHERE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN EACH COUNTY WILL NOT
REACH FREEZING CRITERIA. SPEAKING OF WINDS, THE RETURN OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING TO OUR WEST AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD HELP PROMOTE AND INCREASE OUR FIRE DANGER AS MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO INCREASE. AS SUCH, WE HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG
WARNING DUE TO THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY (SEE FIRE WEATHER BELOW). HIGHS TUESDAY WITH THE
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE 70S. AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES, EXPECT LOWS TO BE MUCH WARMER WITH MANY STAYING IN THE
50S AND UPPER 40S. AS HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA, HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE WARMER WITH
UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO LOW 80S OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND I-35 CORRIDOR BEING COMMON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MANY AREAS
SEEING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN BEFORE
ANOTHER POLAR TROUGH BRINGS THE NEXT WEATHER CHANGE. SEVERAL LONG
TERM GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE HINTING AT THIS
POSSIBILITY OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRYING TO SWING THROUGH OUR
AREA. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS TROUGH DIGS AND
WHAT IMPACTS WE MAY SEE LOCALLY HERE. OF NOTE, THE MOST RECENT MODEL
RUNS HAVE REALLY SLOWED DOWN THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM WITH ONLY LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE A BIT OF A LULL AS
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND IT'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCES
ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS HAVE RECENTLY TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS
SYSTEM STAYING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE
PUSHING ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR NOW KEPT LOW END POPS (20-40%) TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY AS ITS STILL A WAYS OUT. WILL WAIT FOR
MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS BEFORE INCREASING RAIN/STORM CHANCES.
HOWEVER, ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO HOLD. THINGS CAN AND LIKELY WILL CHANGE
BUT CONFIDENCE CONTINUES INCREASING THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE
ZONAL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY, BROKEN LOW
STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR AND SOUTH
OF SAN ANTONIO. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5KT EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL PLAINS, E TO
SE 5-10KT CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE. A S TO SW WIND (SE NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE) AROUND 15 KT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP 15Z-18Z, GUSTING
TO AROUND 25KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SLOWER
KEEPING MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S. THE SURFACE
HIGH SLIDES EAST, WITH THE RETURNING AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SPEEDS DURING THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH. THESE WIND SPEEDS, COMBINED WITH THE LOW HUMIDITY AND
CRY TO CRITICALLY DRY FUEL MOISTURE, WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. AS A RESULT
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 9 AM THROUGH 6 PM TODAY.
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM ARRIVING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND COULD BRING SOME CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN BUT ALSO THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER FRONT THAT COULD
RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 55 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 52 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 51 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 51 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 48 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 52 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 47 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 51 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 53 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 52 81 59 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 52 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...76
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