107
FXUS64 KEWX 120016
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
616 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY.
- WARMING TREND AHEAD OF A WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM THAT BRINGS LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-40%) RAIN AND STORM CHANCES.
- POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
LIGHT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ON REGIONAL WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON THE 12Z
SOUNDING AT DRT AND THAT IS CLEARLY DEPICTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 15-25%, AND
IN COMBINATION WITH S TO SSW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND/WARM RATHER
QUICKLY GIVEN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
TONIGHT, A RAPID INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AS
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW RAMPS UP AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB
FROM THE 20S/30S TO THE 40S/50S WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE, IT WON'T BE NEARLY AS CHILLY TONIGHT, AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO MID 40S TO MID 50S. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AFTER A CHILLY COUPLE OF DAYS TO
END THE WEEKEND AND START THE WORK WEEK. MOST, IF NOT EVERYONE
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS RATHER BENIGN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MILD MORNINGS AND WARM AFTERNOONS CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
PANHANDLE, INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. OUR NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY,
BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH AND HOW FAR SOUTH
IT WILL MOVE. THE FURTHER SOUTH IT MOVES, THE BETTER THE RAIN
CHANCES. FOR NOW, POPS REMAIN LOW, BETWEEN 20-40%, AS WE AWAIT
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM, WE LOOK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
FOR THE NEXT SHOT AT RAIN AND STORMS AND THE CPC HAS ISSUED A LOW
TO MODERATE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA
NOVEMBER 20-21ST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH THAT LOOKS A BIT MORE
PROMISING FOR PRECIPITATION. THIS IS STILL 10 DAYS OUT, SO WE WILL
HAVE TO GIVE IT SOME TIME BEFORE CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE IN MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH SUNSET, WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAINING INTACT ALONG
I-35 AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AT DRT. WIND SPEEDS BEGIN
TO PICK UP LATE TOMORROW MORNING, WITH SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS
LIKELY COMING BACK TO THE I-35 SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PICKING
UP THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-20 MPH ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH, AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 15-25%, CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS
WINDS RELAX AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS RAPIDLY RISE BACK INTO THE 40S
AND 50S AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 54 82 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 51 82 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 50 82 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 50 79 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 48 81 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 51 82 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 46 82 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 50 83 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 53 82 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 52 81 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 52 83 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...PLATT
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