269
FXUS64 KEWX 120603
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1203 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH WARMER REST OF THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- TRENDING DRIER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN POSSIBLY
WETTER MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THIS WEEK, SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS RETURNED AND
WILL BRING A WARMING TREND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS
LOWER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING AND WARM/DRY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD
OVER OUR AREA. IN ADDITION, INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWS
HUMIDITIES TO RECOVER WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LOW CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT, THEN MIX TO SUNSHINE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOWER FLOW AND STOUT LOWER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAIN THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE OVERHEAD, HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY. A
BRIEF INCURSION OF A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU,
HILL COUNTRY, AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. FORCING BY THESE FEATURES IS WEAK, THOUGH STRONG
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG
AND EAST OF I-35 ON MONDAY. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 20S FOR MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
DISAGREEMENT ON PASSAGES OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN THE BLENDED GUIDANCES, THOUGH EXPECT
THEM TO CHANGE WITH TIME SHOULD MODELS GET IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS NEAR AND SOUTH OF SSF 10Z-14Z,
WHERE HREF INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY (30-50%) OF IFR CONDITIONS.
LOW STRATUS AND FOG COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD 06Z-15Z THURSDAY.
SE TO SW WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, INCREASING TO 8-15KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
AFTER ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OF THE LAST THREE
DAYS, A MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS RESUMED TO BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER TO ABOVE 20-25%
ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE 35-40% FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THIS SHOULD MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, WITH DRIER
FUELS LINGERING, THEY MAY REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO GUSTY AFTERNOON
WINDS. THE LAST FEW WEEKS HAS SEEN SOME FIRES SPREAD IN SPITE OF
HIGHER HUMIDITIES. ALTHOUGH, MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL AGAIN INTO THE
20-30% RANGE ON MONDAY ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY, WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 10 MPH TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONLY ELEVATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 82 60 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 82 58 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 82 57 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 79 58 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 81 53 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 81 59 83 62 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 55 84 57 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 83 58 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 82 59 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 82 60 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 83 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...76
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