046
FXUS64 KEWX 121754
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1154 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND.
- TRENDING WETTER MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
QUIESCENT WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE REGIONAL
CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US TRANSITIONS TOWARDS
MORE OF A SUBTROPICAL REX BLOCK APPEARANCE. THIS WILL KEEP AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS THROUGH THIS WEEK, RESULTING IN DRY, SUNNY,
AND STABLE WEATHER. STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING IN MORE GULF
MOISTURE TONIGHT, LEADING TO MORE MILD TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE REGION, AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS AND IN THE
MORE URBANIZED PARTS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR MAY STAY IN THE 60S ALL
NIGHT. PATCHY MORNING FOG IS FAVORED MAINLY IN CALMER LOW-LYING
SPOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. FOG AND LOW STRATUS MIX OUT TO SUNSHINE
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S. A STOUT WEST-TO-EAST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS THURSDAY LATE-
MORNING TO AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN SPOTS
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR, HILL COUNTRY, AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU,
THOUGH THE ADDED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP MITIGATE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MORE MILD, WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
THE CONSENSUS AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS THAT BROAD TROUGHING WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN US LATER THIS WEEK AND THEN PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS SETUP GENERALLY PREVENTS COOLER POLAR OR CANADIAN
AIR FROM PUSHING SOUTH INTO TEXAS, BUT LEADS TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WHICH CAN SERVE AS A CORRIDOR FOR MOISTURE AND STORMINESS OVER
OUR AREA DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE JET STREAM.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STAYS PUT DURING THE
PERIOD. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S BY THE
WEEKEND, WITH LOW 90S POSSIBLE OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WHILE THE
ENSEMBLE MAX TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTIONS DON'T LOOK QUITE AS
AGGRESSIVE AS LAST WEEK, HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD APPROACH
DAILY RECORD TERRITORY WHEN THE THERMAL RIDGE UNDERLYING THE RIDGE
ALOFT IS AT ITS PEAK STRENGTH.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES/FRONT
RANGE ON MONDAY. WHILE THIS IS TOO FAR NORTH TO DIRECTLY FORCE
ASCENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, STRENGTHENED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IN ITS WAKE SHOULD HELP PUSH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT TOWARDS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR MONDAY AND INCREASE UPPER-AIR DIVERGENCE AS THE
SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFTS EAST INTO OUR AREA. LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
RAIN, UP TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT, ARE DEPICTED MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS GULF MOISTURE STARTS TO ISENTROPICALLY
FEED INTO THE APPROACHING JET. AFTER MONDAY, THE FORECAST BECOMES
LESS CLEAR DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE BROADER
TROUGHING OVER THE US. CLUSTER ANALYSES INDICATE A CLOSE TO EVEN-
SPLIT IN LIKELIHOOD BETWEEN MORE SLUGGISH VERSUS MORE STEADILY PACED
TROUGHING. WHILE THESE DIFFERENCES IMPACT THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES AND HOW LONG ASCENDING AIR IS FAVORED OVER THE REGION,
THE JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED THERMALLY DIRECT CIRCULATION SHOULD AT
LEAST PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLE
RAINS, THE CONTINUED PUSH OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND A LACK OF
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT, A
SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOP OF LOW STRATUS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE ESCARPMENT NEAR SAT, AS WELL AS NORTH AND
WEST INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. EAST OF I-35,
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS INDICATED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SE TO SW
WINDS MAINLY 8-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TO 4-7 KT LATE
TONIGHT, AND REPEAT THE DIURNAL TREND INTO DAYTIME THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
AFTER ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OF THE LAST THREE
DAYS, A MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS RESUMED TO BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER TO ABOVE 20-25%
TODAY, THEN ABOVE 35-40% FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, WITH DRIER FUELS
LINGERING, THEY MAY REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS.
THE LAST FEW WEEKS HAS SEEN SOME FIRES SPREAD IN SPITE OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES. ALTHOUGH, MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL AGAIN INTO THE
20-30% RANGE ON MONDAY ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY, WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 10 MPH TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONLY ELEVATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 60 84 62 84 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 58 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 57 84 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 57 80 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 53 83 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 59 83 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 55 84 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 57 85 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 59 83 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 60 83 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 60 85 61 85 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...18
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