222
FXUS64 KEWX 130603
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1203 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- DRY, THEN TRENDING WETTER MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW INTO A THERMAL RIDGE UNDERNEATH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BRING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG, SOME
DENSE, LATE NIGHT INTO MORNING. HEATING ALLOWS FOR MIXING WITH A DRY
AIRMASS ALOFT TO ENABLE AMPLE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING WELL TO OUR
NORTH ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS NEAR RECORDS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE LOWER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS.
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE 16TH THROUGH 18TH ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. FORCING FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET, AN UPPER LEVEL JET, AND A WEAK
PACIFIC FRONT ON DEEPENING MOISTURE RESULT IN SLIGHT POPS (10-25%)
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
AMONG THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THE ONGOING CONSENSUS SHOWS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING OVER TEXAS. HOWEVER, THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ARE IN FLUX. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHER POPS (20-50%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ONE SCENARIO IS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MARGINAL
STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. A SLIGHT "COOLDOWN" IS EXPECTED, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. EXPECT UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
A SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING A
MIX OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS,
PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR, AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. INITIALLY PATCHY
06Z-09Z, COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE 09Z-14Z. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. THE STRATUS
AND FOG IS FORECAST TO MIX OUT AROUND 15-16Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. E TO S WINDS AROUND OR LESS THAN
5 KT OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 17Z ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL PLAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 62 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 83 60 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 84 59 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 80 60 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 58 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 83 61 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 84 57 84 58 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 85 60 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 84 59 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 83 61 83 62 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 85 61 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...76
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