065
FXUS64 KEWX 102336
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
536 PM CST WED DEC 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS
LESSEN THIS EVENING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER PERSISTING FOR MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST WED DEC 10 2025
BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS A BATCH OF
STRONGER MOMENTUM TRAILING BEHIND A COLD FRONT DIFFUSES OVER
SOUTH- CENTRAL TEXAS. GUSTS MAINLY WITHIN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL START TO TAPER AS
THE HIGH MOMENTUM AIR MIXES OUT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY MOVE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A NEAR CALM FOR MOST OF
THE AREA, COMBINING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR A
NIGHT OF EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. MORNING LOWS THURSDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. MOST SHOULD
STAY ABOVE FREEZING, THOUGH THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED PATCHY DIP
INTO THE LOW 30S IN LOW-LYING DRAINAGE AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS THURSDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE CONTINUING,
THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 70. THE IMPACT OF THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
BETTER FELT BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY REACHING THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S AS GULF MOISTURE BOOSTS DEW POINTS, INCLUDING
MEDIUM CHANCES (AROUND A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE) OF SOME ADVECTION
FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST WED DEC 10 2025
PERSISTENTLY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ENTERING THIS WEEKEND
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING LEVELS WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE
FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER
MOST OF THE CWA. A WEAK FRONT COULD APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND
MODERATE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY, BUT ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH IS STILL
ANTICIPATED. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING AT THE LOW-LEVELS MAY
SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
SATURDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY,
BRINGING CLOUDIER SKIES AND MORE NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST (OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN US), SO TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AREA MOSTLY
DROP TO SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE (UP TO 20 PERCENT) OF A FREEZE
MONDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY SOUTH OF I-10, BUT
THE DRAWN OUT FRONTAL SURFACE, LACK OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS, AND
WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING KEEPS RAIN CHANCES LOW... AROUND 20 TO 30
PERCENT MAINLY FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
RIDGING ALOFT REBUILDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, FACILITATING A WARMING
TREND STARTING TUESDAY. ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC WILL REACH THE
SOUTHERN US BY ABOUT MIDWEEK. THIS SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THOUGH UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING
KEEPS RAIN PROBABILITIES LOW (AROUND 20 PERCENT) FOR THE TIME
BEING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST WED DEC 10 2025
GUSTY WINDS WERE STILL NOTED AT AUS IN THE 23Z MTR, BUT THE GUSTS
SHOULD BE DYING DOWN ANY TIME NOW, GIVEN THE SURROUNDING
OBSERVATIONS. LIGHT N WINDS WILL SETTLE TO BE L/V TOWARD DAYBREAK
AND THE RETURN FLOW WIND DIRECTIONS WILL HIT DRT BY DAYBREAK AND
THE OTHER 3 SITES BY MIDDAY. ONLY A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 41 69 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 38 69 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 41 68 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 37 68 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 41 71 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 37 68 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 38 69 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 38 69 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 40 68 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 42 68 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 43 69 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...18
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