415
FXUS64 KEWX 110623
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1223 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES UP AND DOWN SEVERAL TIMES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- THE ONLY MENTIONABLE (>15%) CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY FOR
NOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST IS PRODUCING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
TO THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LOOSENED AND THE
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES
LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL YO-YO DOWN TODAY TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. AS THE HIGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.
THE YO-YO WILL SWING BACK UP WITH LOWS FRIDAY ABOUT FIVE DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY AND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER REACHING THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVEL WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
LOWS SATURDAY WILL BE WARMER AGAIN. SATURDAY WILL START CLOUDY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES BEING A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN FRIDAY. SUNDAY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE RIO GRANDE REGION TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN
A THUNDERSTORM, BUT CHANCES ARE ONLY 20%-40% DURING THE DAY.
THERE WILL BE BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION.
TODAY THE BLENDED MODEL IS DRY AS THIS FEATURE PASSES. HOWEVER,
THE GFS GENERATES SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO
WAIT FOR FURTHER GUIDANCE TO SEE WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT. RAIN OR
NO RAIN, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF
THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR BUT DO
ANTICIPATE FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATE WITHIN THE 30 HOUR TAF
PERIOD FOR THE KAUS AND KSAT TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY ENTERING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS BECOME MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE, INCLUDING KDRT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 48 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 46 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 46 76 54 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 46 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 45 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 47 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 44 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 46 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 49 75 55 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 49 76 57 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 49 77 58 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...62
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