626
FXUS64 KEWX 121917
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
117 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER FOGGY START FOR TOMORROW MORNING POSSIBLE
- TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20 TO 30 PERCENT) OF RAIN FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS SATURDAY AND FOR EVERYONE SUNDAY, OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
FOR THE REST OF TODAY EXPECT TEMPS TO BE TEMPERED A BIT BECAUSE OF
THE LATE DISSIPATION OF THE FOG THIS MORNING. AREAS THAT HAD LITTLE
TO NO FOG SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY HITTING 80. FOR TONIGHT WE LOOK TO STAY MILD WITH
LOWS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR REMAINING IN THE 60S.
SEVERAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT A TROUGH LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. ADDITIONALLY, WE COULD SEE THE SEA BREEZE KICK OFF SOME
STREAMER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HAVE
ADDED LOW END POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS (15-30%) WITH THE AREAS
FURTHEST EAST MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP. FOR AREAS WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH NO PRECIP. HIGHS
TOMORROW SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE
THERE'S LITTLE TO NO FOG OR PRECIP IN THE MORNING HOURS. LOWS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MUCH COLDER WITH MANY SEEING THE LOW TO
UPPER 40S NORTH OF I-35 WITH LOW 50S SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT STARTS TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WE COULD SEE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN AND HAVE ADDED POPS AS NBM WAS JUST TO LOW.
WITH THE MOISTURE STICKING AROUND (DEW POINTS IN THE 60S) AND LIGHT
WINDS WE COULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG
FORM ONCE AGAIN BY TOMORROW MORNING. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING 1
TO AS LOW AS A 1/4 MILE FROM BASICALLY THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON EAST.
RIGHT NOW THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE DENSEST FOG IS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WE ARENT EXPECTING AS DENSE
OF FOG AS WE SAW THIS MORNING. HAVE ADDED MENTION IN THE POPS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
FOR THE LONG TERM WE SHOULD SEE A BIG COOLDOWN FROM WHERE TEMPS WERE
THESE PAST FEW DAYS AFTER THE COLD FRONT THAT HANGS NORTH OF OUR
AREA TRIES TO MOVES SOUTHWARD. WE COULD SEE A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS WELL AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH MORE
LONG RANGE MODELS PICKING UP ON THIS. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO
20% THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE FRONT INCREASE AND IT WILL FEEL PRETTY CHILLY AS CAA CONTINUES
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. I WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF OUR HIGHS ARE A BIT TOO WARM AS WELL. WE REMAIN IN A
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW UNTIL MIDDAY MONDAY WHEN WE
START TO SEE THE RETURN OF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA BY TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GO ON A ROLLER COASTER TREND. EXPECT COOLER
(READ SEASONAL) TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE WE JUMP TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THIS
PERIOD ALSO LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
A LOW LEVEL DECK WITH MVFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING THE I-35 CORRIDOR
TERMINALS AS OF 18Z. HOWEVER, THIS SITUATION MAY LAST FOR ANOTHER
ONE TO TWO HOURS BEFORE VFR CIGS RETURN TO AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO
AIRPORTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE WIND FLOW TURNS SOUTHEAST AND EAST AND STAYS
THROUGH THE EVENING. FOR KDRT, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS STAY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT, CIGS AND VBSYS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP DOWN TO MVFR, IFR AND EVEN LIFR AS A LOW CLOUD DECK AND FOG
DEVELOPS MAINLY ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS AREAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME PATCHY TO DENSE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY COMING
BACK SHORTLY AFTER THE 17Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DURING THE EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 57 72 48 57 / 20 20 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 57 74 49 59 / 20 20 30 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 58 74 51 59 / 20 20 20 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 53 71 43 52 / 20 10 10 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 51 75 52 63 / 0 0 0 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 54 73 46 55 / 20 20 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 56 77 54 63 / 20 10 0 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 58 75 49 60 / 20 20 30 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 60 76 53 60 / 20 30 30 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 60 76 54 61 / 20 10 20 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 62 77 57 63 / 20 10 10 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...17
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